My Investing Muse
Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies
Americans are leaving the U.S. in record numbers, drawn by a quality of life made easily affordable by the U.S.’s enviable salaries. - WSJ
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Meta layoffs could reportedly impact around 16,000 employees - MacroEdge
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Amazon made 2,847 engineers spend 8 months documenting every code pattern, every debugging workflow, every optimisation trick they'd learned over the years. Then fed it all to AI. Then, they fired them. No one saw it coming. The entire thing was disguised as something every senior engineer already does. Knowledge transfer. Best practices. Internal documentation. They were writing their own replacement manual. And the same playbook is running at every major tech company right now. - X user Srishti
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TotalEnergies: production shutting down in Qatar, Iraq, and the UAE offshore - MacroEdge
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Volkswagen Is Cutting 50,000 jobs, and it's a wake-up call for the Entire Auto Industry
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ALL HSBC BRANCHES CLOSED IN QATAR UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE TO ENSURE SAFETY OF CUSTOMERS AND STAFF - TEXT MESSAGE TO CUSTOMERS - X user Walter Bloomberg
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75% of job openings in finance are gone. AI is eating finance first. - X user Peter St Onge PhD.
The number of Americans unemployed for 27 weeks or more has DOUBLED since Dec 2022, and hit 1.97 million in February, the highest in 4 years. In the past, such a level has only been seen during or after economic recessions. Furthermore, the share of Americans unemployed for over 27 weeks hit 26%, the highest since February 2022. This exceeds every peak seen in all recessions except for the Great Financial Crisis and the 2020 Crisis. Long-term unemployment is at a crisis level. - X user Global Markets Investor
Unemployment and the Impact of Artificial Intelligence
Regarding unemployment, several concerns arise beyond a weakening economy and diminished optimism for the months ahead, partly due to the ongoing conflict. The entropic leadership has flagged genuine worries about artificial intelligence potentially taking over a substantial portion of entry-level white-collar jobs. However, Amazon has pointed out that not all AI agent deployments or applications will succeed. There have been various reports addressing issues such as AI-driven blackmail, misinformation, and defensive behaviour when AI systems are threatened. Notably, there is a growing trend of evidence showcasing hallucination and falsehoods in AI models, which further complicates the outlook for employment and technology integration.
Is Private Credit the next Subprime?
John Mearsheimer: “There’s no question a nuclear-armed Iran would bring stability to the region. If Iran had a nuclear deterrent, there’s no way the US or Israel would be threatening to attack Iran right now.”
BlackRock (HLEND, $26B): 9.3% (~$1.2B) requested Q1, paid 5% ($620M), ~$580M denied/deferred. Cliffwater ($33B): 14% requested, paid 7%, 7% denied. Blackstone (BCRED): ~7.9% (~$3.8B) requested, all met (cap raised to 7% + $400M firm/exec injection). Morgan Stanley (~$8B fund): ~11% requested, paid 5% ($169M), ~6% denied. JP Morgan: No fund redemptions limited; they restricted lending to some private credit borrowers after markdowns. - (Bloomberg/Reuters, Mar 6-12 2026)
Private Credit Sector Concerns
News surrounding the private credit industry has raised concerns, given its multi-trillion dollar scale and involvement of major financial institutions, including Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, BlackRock, and Blackstone. The sector’s lack of transparency regarding credit delinquency and risk, compared to traditional banking structures, poses additional challenges. Ongoing monitoring of developments in private credit is warranted, as its opacity could lead to unforeseen financial risks.
Middle East Conflict and Inflationary Pressures
The ongoing war in the Middle East shows no sign of de-escalation in the coming week, given the firm positions taken by the involved nations. Recent news highlights not only the tragic collateral damage, including loss of lives and livelihoods, but also points to the potential for greater inflationary pressures worldwide. The conflict is expected to impact oil and gas supply chains, leading to rising energy costs. This effect is likely to ripple through other industries, such as semiconductors, since helium—a critical element for chip manufacturing—is sourced from the affected region. Furthermore, agriculture faces significant risk, as approximately 30% of global fertiliser production comes from this area. Reports indicate that American farmers are already experiencing fertiliser price increases of over 70%, underscoring the broad economic consequences.
My Final Thoughts
Market Opportunities and Strategic Caution
Despite the various risks and weaknesses, there remain opportunities to generate returns in the market. It is important to recognise that sometimes abstaining from trading can be the most prudent decision. In the upcoming week, attention should be paid to supply chain business earnings, beginning with FedEx, since logistics play a vital role in sustaining the broader economy.
Financial Strategy and Outlook
Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.
As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.
Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.
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