$SPX Breakdown Deepens, Worst Start Since 1926 Raises Red Flags

AfraSimon
07:18

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

The S&P 500 is showing historically weak momentum, with just 3 positive weeks so far this year—matching one of the worst starts on record.

The index is also on track for its longest stretch below the 200-day moving average since 2025, reinforcing bearish technical pressure.

Seasonality adds another layer of risk: historically, midterm election cycles have seen average drawdowns of over 18% before stabilizing, suggesting further volatility may lie ahead before a more durable bottom forms.

1.S&P 500 $SPX has only had 3 green weeks during the first 12 weeks this year, equaling the worst start to a year in history 🚨🚨🚨

2.S&P 500 $SPX on track for its 8th consecutive close below the 200-day moving average, the longest streak since April/May 2025

3.2026 Warning 🚨: Going back to 1926, the S&P 500 has seen an average drawdown of 18.2% in the 12 months before midterm elections 📉

Going back 60 years, the smallest drawdown has been 7.4% while the largest was 41.8% 🤯 After the midterms, all is well, but before? 🤔

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