Looking at the large option flows, after four consecutive up days, the market seems to have thrown in the towel. Sentiment can be broken into a few camps:
No More Crash Camp: Short VIX $VIX 20260722 28.0 CALL$ , short SQQQ $SQQQ 20260410 76.5 CALL$ .
Sideways Camp: Year-end sell puts on Intel $INTC 20261218 33.0 PUT$ and $INTC 20260918 39.0 PUT$ .
Big Range-Bound Until May 1st: Sell put $NVDA 20260501 150.0 PUT$ + sell call $NVDA 20260501 195.0 CALL$ .
The mainstream view is that war won't break out, but it will drag on — at least through May. That consensus likely solidified last week as Micron approached 300. I have to say, that large bullish call order on MU $MU 20260618 400.0 CALL$ was perfectly timed.
So, is it time to sell puts? Depends on your risk tolerance. If the current expectation of grinding tension doesn't pan out — and instead war escalates — we could see 5000 on SPY.
$NVDA$
Put flow looks much healthier than last week. Expected range: 170–185. At current levels, if margin isn't an issue, selling the 170 put could work $NVDA 20260410 170.0 PUT$ .
$INTC$
Two large sell put orders: $INTC 20261218 33.0 PUT$ and $INTC 20260918 39.0 PUT$ . Feels like an institution tired of the macro mess — just locking in some yield for year-end.
$SPY$
A butterfly centered around 495–500 — tail-risk hedge. Without a black swan, the base this week should be 640–650, with upside to 670. Timing is key for selling calls — selling low can get squeezed.
$MU$
A large buy order: $MU 20260501 400.0 CALL$ — 19,000 contracts opened.
Comments