$SPX Rally Faces Resistance While Semiconductors Hit Highs

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 12 April 2026

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:

The S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has rebounded to a key overhead resistance zone.
Semiconductors $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ meanwhile are already out to new all-time highs.
Tech stocks have seen a reset comparable to that of April 2025.
The tech sector is driving overall profit margins to record highs.
Tech stock valuations are still elevated (raising some questions).

Overall, it’s been a textbook rally from oversold conditions. The next steps will be key as overhead resistance looms (with risk shadows lingering in the background vs tech strength stirring).

1. Technical Check

bouncing from oversold conditions was the easy part, the next bit is to crack back above major overhead resistance initially at 6800 (and then 7000 to get back to new highs). This is the part where you usually have a bit of chop and consolidation, and at worst take another dip down…

2. BMR

on that note, the real worst case is that you get a nice trading rally, but then it rolls over to go onto new lows and into bear market.

(beware the bear market rally)

3. Semi New Highs

but before we go jumping to conclusions and guessing next steps, it is important to observe what we can —and one thing we can observe is the main driver of the bull market (semis) just keeping calm and carrying on to new highs.

4. Semiconductors Market Cap Weight:

technical analysts might muse that the recent moves in semiconductors’ market cap weighting looks like a bull flag(!)

Definitely different this time, but will it rhyme?

S&P 500 Second Straight Record! Can Earnings Season Sustain the Rally?

The S&P 500 ETF rose a modest 0.58% to $679.91, holding near highs as easing geopolitical tensions provide a supportive backdrop ahead of next week's earnings season kickoff. Storage, AI cloud, and semiconductors continue to drive broad index breakouts, though internal divergence is widening — AMZN, SNDK, and CRWV attracted strong inflows while MSFT and ORCL lagged. Can the first week of earnings become the next upside catalyst, and will the S&P 500 break through 6900?

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