$INTC momentum signals renewed demand for strategic supply chains

AfraSimon
04-14

The "presidential basket" is waking back up for round two.

Source? $Intel(INTC)$ ran 50% in the last 2 weeks...

If this gov't backed theme continues to heat back up, most direct beneficiaries are:

  • Semiconductors

  • Drones

  • Rare Earths

  • More in depth:

  • Semiconductors:

$INTC (gov’t-backed funding + strategic priority)

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ (Arizona fab heavily subsidized by U.S. gov’t)

Drones (“drone dominance” push):

$Ondas Holdings Inc.(ONDS)$ ($20M border protection PO)

$Red Cat Holdings Inc.(RCAT)$ (army SRR contract + exposure to $1.1B program)

$Kratos Defense & Security Solutions(KTOS)$ (pentagon drone programs, early phases)

Rare earths (supply chain reshoring):

$USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$ (gov’t equity stake ~10%)

$CRITICAL METALS CORPORATION(CRML)$ (~10% gov’t stake)

$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$ (DoD-backed, strategic asset)

$Lithium Americas Corp.(LAC)$ (DoE equity stake ~5%)

$Trilogy Metals(TMQ)$ (DoD support)

Not an exhaustive list, but after INTC's recent run, some of these are on my radar again.

In terms of relative strength YTD, the top 3 are:

1) INTC +69%

2) RCAT +56%

3) USAR+35%

Fwiw.

Watching these 3 "government exposure" baskets.

Morgan Stanley Resets Intel Target: Is AI Foundry Recovery Underestimated?
Intel edged up 0.85% to $66 ahead of its Q1 earnings release tomorrow after hours, with Morgan Stanley preemptively resetting its price target and declaring "Intel's real AI recovery is just beginning." Market focus centers on Intel 18A process yields and foundry customer scale — the two metrics that will determine whether Intel can compete with TSMC for advanced node orders. The risk: if tomorrow's report fails to meet institutional expectations, the $66 historically discounted level could come under renewed pressure. Can Intel use tomorrow's data to prove its AI foundry recovery is real?
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