$SPY Playbook: Bleed, Then Rip

Michael Esther
04-19 08:19

This is Trump's midterm year. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ crashed from $697 to $629 so far. Its at $712 right now.

The average drawdown for any given midterm year is 20%. Trump says he will have to end ceasefire and peace agreement with Iran this weekend.

You'll get 1 more chance to buy the dip.

Every midterm year since 1974. Its the same pattern.

  • 1974 Ford: −35% → +38% a year later

  • 1978 Carter: −15% → +24%

  • 1982 Reagan: −17% → +58%

  • 1986 Reagan: −10% → +35%

  • 1990 Bush: −20% → +29%

  • 1994 Clinton: −8% → +37%

  • 1998 Clinton: −22% → +40%

  • 2002 Bush: −34% → +34%

  • 2006 Bush: −8% → +24%

  • 2010 Obama: −17% → +30%

  • 2014 Obama: −10% → +17%

  • 2018 Trump: −20% → +37%

  • 2022 Biden: −27% → +25%

  • 2026 Trump: -10% so far...

Avg drawdown: −19%

Avg 1-yr from the bottom: +33%

13 for 13. Never missed.

The market doesn't care who's president.

It bleeds. Then it rips.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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