In February 2025, I conducted a valuation analysis of Olam Group following the Olam Agri transaction. By calculating the implied value of Olam Agri based on its private sale price and comparing it to Olam Group’s total market capitalization, a clear discrepancy emerged.
My conclusion was straightforward: when Olam’s share price dipped below 1 SGD, the market was valuing the entire Group at less than the stake in Olam Agri. This effectively meant that shareholders were acquiring Olam OFI for free. This thesis proved correct and resulted in a profitable trade, highlighting a significant market mispricing of the Group’s underlying assets.
$Olam Group(VC2.SI)$
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