$COIN 1Q26 Preview: PT Raised to $200! Is the Crypto Bottom Near? 🚨

👋 Hey Tigers!

The 1Q26 earnings preview for $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ just dropped, and there's a notable shift in tone. 🔄

Current market vibes: Volume softness vs. a more constructive BTC backdrop 🤔 Here's what the Tiger Research Team is saying:

👉 Maintain HOLD rating 👉 Price Target RAISED to $200 (previously $170) 📈 👉 Current Price: $195.26

While near-term trading volumes are weak and stablecoin regulation looms, the team is now incrementally more constructive on Bitcoin's outlook. Here's the breakdown 👇

1. 1Q26 Volume Check: A Tale of Two Markets 📉🚀

The Headwinds (Spot Trading):

• 🌍 Global spot crypto trading volume fell 35% q/q in 1Q26, mainly reflecting weaker crypto prices

• 📊 Coinbase's spot volume fell at a slower 26% q/q pace — implying a market share GAIN to ~5.8% (up from 5.1% in 4Q25) ✅

• 🎯 The Tiger team trimmed total 1Q trading volume estimates by 17%

The Bright Spot (Derivatives):

• 🌐 Coinbase International Exchange derivatives volume held broadly flat q/q, outperforming the broader market

• This validates the diversification strategy beyond pure spot fees 💪

2. Stablecoin Yield: Restructured, Not Eliminated 🪙⚖️

This is where the regulatory debate is heating up 🔥

• The conversation has shifted from "should yield exist?" to "how broadly should restrictions apply?"

• Under the Clarity Act, policymakers are weighing whether the yield ban should extend beyond issuers to exchanges, wallets, and affiliated platforms like Coinbase

• This matters because Coinbase monetizes stablecoin balances via reserve income sharing (and redistributes some via rewards)

Tiger's View: Full prohibition is unlikely. A narrower framework is more probable — banning passive, balance-based yield while allowing activity-based rewards tied to payments, card usage, subscriptions, etc. 💳

⏰ Next 2–3 months = key legislative window. Market is already partly pricing in restrictions, so passage may act as a de-risking event rather than a fresh negative — UNLESS a full ban on affiliate rewards emerges (lower-probability tail risk).

3. BTC Cycle Outlook: Is $60K the Bottom? 🔮

Here's where the tone shifts more positive 🌅

• 📉 BTC dropped to ~$60K in early February, retracing >50% from its October peak of ~$126.2K

• This drawdown is materially shallower than past bear markets (>75% in 2022, >80% in 2018)

• The team credits institutional capital and ETF flows for dampening downside volatility

• They don't rule out ~$60K as the cyclical trough ✅

⚠️ But beware: The recent ~32.5% rebound (to ~$79.5K) doesn't automatically mean the bear phase is over. History shows bear markets often feature 30%+ countertrend rallies that fail to mark durable bottoms.

🎯 Bottom line: Long-term risk-reward is increasingly attractive, but a more extended consolidation may be needed before a sustained uptrend.

4. The Financials: Estimates Trimmed ✂️

Numbers were taken down across the board:

Tiger vs. Consensus on 1Q26:

• Revenue: $1,431M (Tiger) vs. $1,530M (Street) — 6% below

• EBITDA: $339M vs. $450M — 25% below

• Diluted GAAP EPS: $0.07 vs. $0.19 — 62% below

That's a meaningful gap — heads up if you're trading earnings 👀

⚖️Valuation & Risks

Valuation: The new $200 PT implies 8.4x 2026E revenue and 25.5x 2026E EBITDA — broadly in line with exchange and fintech peers.

Key Risks:

• 🏛️ Regulation — AML, environmental, and Clarity Act enforcement

• 🛡️ Cybersecurity — custody risk

• 💹 Crypto Price Sensitivity — revenue moves with prices of crypto assets

• ⚔️ Competition — fast-evolving landscape requires heavy investment

📝 Summary

• ✅ HOLD maintained, but PT raised to $200 from $170 — a slightly more constructive setup

• 📊 Near-term volume weakness offset by international derivatives strength and modest spot share gain

• 🪙 Stablecoin yield likely restructured, not eliminated — narrow framework is base case

• ₿ Possibility that ~$60K is the cycle trough, though more consolidation may be ahead

• ⚠️ 1Q numbers likely to come in below consensus — manage expectations into print

🐯 Questions for Tigers

1. Cycle Timing: Has institutional adoption (ETFs, macro flows) genuinely broken the historical 4-year cycle, or is ~$60K just a pause?

2. Stablecoin Rules: If a narrow regulatory framework passes, is that net bullish (de-risking) or net bearish for $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 's economics?

3. Entry Point: With PT at $200 and the stock at ~$195, are you accumulating, waiting for sub-$150, or staying out until earnings?

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