S&P 500 Concludes Best Month Since 2020! Chase New High or Take Profits?

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April's final session: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed at all-time highs (+1%), $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ +0.89%. Full month: S&P 500 +10.4%, Nasdaq +14.8% — the strongest single-month return since the post-COVID rebound in 2020.

Based on historical data, if multiple new highs are reached in April, the subsequent market performance is usually relatively strong.

But Goldman and BofA Are Both Flashing Yellow

Goldman Sachs Macro (April 30):

S&P rallied 14% from the late-March low to record highs, but the median S&P 500 constituent is still 13% below its 52-week high — market breadth is at its narrowest in decades outside the Dot-Com Bubble.

The Momentum factor is up +25% YTD, with hedge fund Momentum net exposure near 5-year highs. The divergence is extreme: semiconductors +30% since the Iran War (Feb 28), but equal-weight S&P -1%, Consumer Staples -5%, Health Care -9%.

BofA Securities (week of April 20-26):

As the S&P hits new highs, clients have posted 6 consecutive weeks of single-stock outflows ($3.9B last week). Institutional clients were net sellers in 5 of the last 6 weeks. Rolling 4-week net flow: -$1.2B.

But the good news is: “Clients bought Tech stocks (after selling them for 4-weeks) ahead of a busy Tech earnings week.”

Will the bull run continue into may?

Goldman flags that historically, after breadth narrows this sharply, 3-6 month drawdown risk increases significantly. But the fundamental case is real — $725B in confirmed CapEx, supply-constrained storage, and Big Tech earnings that beat on every line.

Do you chase the new high or wait for a pullback?

Which sector do you think catches up?

Leave your comments to win at least 5 tiger coins~

S&P 500 Concludes Best Month! Chase New High or Take Profits?

April's final session: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed at all-time highs (+1%), $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ +0.89%. Full month: S&P 500 +10.4%, Nasdaq +14.8% — the strongest single-month return since the post-COVID rebound in 2020. Based on historical data, if multiple new highs are reached in April, the subsequent market performance is usually relatively strong. Will the bull run continue into may? Do you chase the new high or wait for a pullback? Which sector do you think catches up?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Comments

Cadi Poon
05-01 23:34
Cadi Poon
The Momentum factor is up +25% YTD, with hedge fund Momentum net exposure near 5-year highs. The divergence is extreme: semiconductors +30% since the Iran War (Feb 28), but equal-weight S&P -1%, Consumer Staples -5%, Health Care -9%.
TimothyX
05-01 23:33
TimothyX
April's final session: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed at all-time highs (+1%), $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ +0.89%. Full month: S&P 500 +10.4%, Nasdaq +14.8% — the strongest single-month return since the post-COVID rebound in 2020.
Bobjojuki
05-01 23:10
Bobjojuki
great time now