The U.S. Office of Government Ethics (OGE) just disclosed that President Donald Trump executed over 21,000 securities trades in 2025, with a total value between $600 million and $1.86 billion. Trump's team claims these assets are independently managed by third-party institutions through "automated, model-based portfolios," placing them in a so-called "blind trust."

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At the same time, the second half of the year is just beginning. The bigger question now is not only what we missed in H1, but also what we are preparing to watch in H2.

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The historic rally throughout 2025 was built on one core assumption: the Federal Reserve would eventually begin cutting interest rates. Then everything changed. The Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, inflation concerns resurfaced, and central banks around the world—including the Fed—turned more hawkish. Markets quickly shifted from pricing in rate cuts to pricing in rate hikes.

Higher rates. Stronger dollar. The historic rally throughout 2025 was built on one core assumption: the Federal Reserve would eventually begin cutting interest rates. Then everything changed. The Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, inflation concerns resurfaced, and central banks around the world—including the Fed—turned more hawkish. Markets quickly shifted from pricing in rate cuts to pricing in rate hikes.

$Micron Technology(MU)$ reports FY2026 Q3 earnings after the close on June 24, and the timing couldn't be more important. Just last week, markets were rattled by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish debut. Global central banks are increasingly leaning toward tightening, while investors have started questioning whether AI valuations have simply gone too far.

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New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh made his first FOMC appearance this week, and his hawkish tone immediately poured cold water on markets, triggering a sharp repricing across global assets. The policy rate itself did not change. The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting, with a unanimous 12-0 vote

The group eventually became synonymous with the AI bull market. Apple sells devices and ecosystems. Meta monetizes attention. Amazon combines e-commerce and cloud. Microsoft dominates software and enterprise AI. NVIDIA sells compute. Tesla is a bet on EVs, robotics, and autonomy.

Today started differently. Stocks opened higher, with the S&P up about 0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite up 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.6%, before giving back some gains during the session

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The 2026 World Cup kicks off — the biggest ever. 48 teams, 104 matches, co-hosted by the U.S., Canada and Mexico, running June 11 to July 19. It's also shaping up as one of the largest sports-betting events in history, with global wagers projected near $50 billion.

The hype has reached a fever pitch. More than $250 billion in subscription funds have reportedly been locked up, with retail investors alone contributing over $70 billion. Allocation rates are expected to be only 20–30%, while more than 1,000 institutions competed for shares and international allocations accounted for less than 10% of the deal. With a greenshoe stabilization mechanism in place, most investors expect a strong debut rather than an IPO break.

Sure no problem

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Jensen Huang is in Korea, and he’s been hyping stocks everywhere he goes: eating fried chicken with SK hynix executives, watching baseball, meeting esports players, and telling anyone who’ll listen, “business is booming” He also announced that SK hynix will become Nvidia’s primary memory supplier for AI data centers. One bullish headline after another.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ at 8000 by year-end (about +6% from now), riding on earnings resilience with expected EPS growth of 24% 2026 is a big IPO year: US IPO fundraising is projected to hit a record $225 billion, far above the previous high of about $115 billion in 2021. But demand outweighs supply — corporate buybacks alone total $1.3 trillion, overwhelming the $1.1 trillion of issuance + lockup-expiry supply (though Goldman warns that supply-demand will tighten in 2027)

- AI revenue: $3.2B in 2025 → $322B in 2030, roughly 100x - Total revenue: $18.7B last year (+33% YoY) → $474B in 2030 - AI ramp: +388% YoY to $15.6B in 2026, $34.5B in 2027