Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 04May2026)
International Market Closures
China will be closed on Monday and Tuesday as the country observes Labor Day celebrations. This holiday may impact trading volumes and activity in Asian markets during these days.
Key U.S. Economic Indicators
The S&P Global Services PMI for April is projected to be 51.3, indicating an expansionary trend in the global services sector.
New home sales data for March will be released, offering valuable insight into the current health of the real estate market.
Several labour market indicators are scheduled for release in the coming week. JOLTS job openings for March will be published, with the previous figure at 6.882 million. This data will serve as an important reference for the Federal Reserve when considering its upcoming interest rate decisions. Additionally, the ADP non-farm employment change for April will be announced, reflecting job openings in the non-agricultural sector. The average hourly earnings for April are forecast at 0.3%, a metric closely watched by the Federal Reserve and market participants, especially in relation to ongoing inflation trends. Non-farm payrolls for April are expected to reach 73,000, a notable decrease from the prior report of 178,000. This lower figure may raise concerns in the market and will likely be a significant consideration for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate strategy. The unemployment rate for April is forecast at 4.3%, and this statistic will be a key data point monitored by both the Federal Reserve and market observers.
Inflation and Services Sector Activity
The ISM non-manufacturing prices index for April will be released, providing important information regarding inflationary pressures faced by non-manufacturing businesses. Additionally, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for April is forecast at 54.0, signalling growth in the non-manufacturing or services sector.
Earnings Calendar (04May2026)
In the coming week the most anticipated earnings releases include that of Palantir, Tyson, Berkshire Hathaway, AMD, PayPal, Walt Disney, KKR, and McDonald’s.
Who is KKR?
KKR & Co. Inc. is a leading global investment firm founded in 1976 that pioneered the private equity industry. As of early 2026, it manages approximately $744 billion in assets, operating across private equity, credit, infrastructure, real estate, and capital markets. Known for its hands-on “one-firm” approach, KKR aims for operational excellence in its portfolio companies, holding investments for 5–7 years. The firm has evolved into a diversified alternative asset manager, including a major insurance business through Global Atlantic. Led by co-CEOs Joe Bae and Scott Nuttall, KKR operates worldwide and is headquartered in New York.
(The above is summarized by Gemini.)
Stock Performance and Valuation
Over the past year, KKR & Co. Inc.’s stock price has declined by approximately 10.8%. The company’s current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at around 44.2, with earnings per share (EPS) reported at $2.51.
Analyst Recommendations
Technical analysis indicates a “strong buy” recommendation for KKR shares. In addition, analyst sentiment supports a “buy” rating, reflecting positive outlooks on the company’s future performance.
Price Target and Potential Upside
KKR has a price target of $122.61, which represents a potential upside of 18.26% from its current trading level.
Revenue Trends (2021–2025)
Examining the company’s revenue over the past five years, KKR generated $24.8 billion in 2021. Despite a significant drop to $5.5 billion in 2022, the business demonstrated resilience, with revenues recovering and reaching $25.6 billion by the end of 2025.
Operating income has experienced a decline, decreasing from $13.8 billion in 2021 to $7 billion in 2025.
In terms of net income, KKR posted $4.7 billion in 2021. However, net income fell to $2.3 billion in 2025. Notably, 2022 marked the most challenging year in the five-year period, with the company reporting a net loss of $521 million.
Total Assets
Over the period from 2021 to 2025, KKR’s total assets saw significant growth. In 2021, total assets were recorded at $264.2 billion. By 2025, this figure had increased substantially, reaching $410 billion. This upward trend reflects the company’s expanding financial base during the five-year period.
Liabilities
Alongside asset growth, KKR’s liabilities also increased. In 2021, liabilities stood at $206 billion. By 2025, they had risen to $328 billion, indicating a higher level of commitments and obligations as the business expanded.
Total Debt
The company’s total debt also increased over the same timeframe. In 2021, KKR reported total debt of $38.9 billion. By 2025, this figure had grown to $53.8 billion, highlighting a greater reliance on borrowed capital.
Cash from Operations
Cash flow from operations presents some concerns, as KKR reported a negative $7.1 billion in 2021. By 2025, the situation improved, but the year still ended with a relatively modest positive cash flow of $477 million. This fluctuation highlights volatility in the company’s core operating cash generation over the period.
Cash from Investing Activities
Cash used in investing activities followed a downward trend throughout the five-year span. In 2021, KKR recorded a cash drawdown of $9.6 billion from investing activities, and by 2025, this drawdown had deepened to $16.2 billion. This pattern underscores increased investments or outflows related to investment activities during this timeframe.
Cash from Financing Activities
Another area of note is the company’s reliance on cash generated from financing activities. In 2021, KKR raised $20.3 billion through financing, and in 2025, the figure remained high at $17.4 billion. This sustained dependence on external financing sources is a point of concern, as it reflects the business’s ongoing need to support operations and investments through additional capital raising.
KKR Q1 2026 News Summary (by Gemini)
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Corporate & Investment Activity: KKR demonstrated strong momentum, securing over $10 billion in financing for AI infrastructure and participating in a $6.7 billion consortium bid for DCC. KKR also competed for a stake in Shell’s LNG Canada project alongside other major alternative asset managers.
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Market Strategy: In its Q1 2026 Playbook, KKR highlighted the transition to a higher rate regime. The firm emphasized portfolio diversification and high-conviction deployment, favoring asset-backed cash flows and infrastructure to mitigate volatility.
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Real Estate Finance (KREF): KKR Real Estate Finance Trust faced headwinds, reporting a GAAP net loss of $62 million. The decline reflects a deliberate strategic shift to resolve watchlist assets and reduce legacy office exposure.
KKR earnings
For the coming earnings release, the forecast EPS and Revenue are $1.34 and $2.24B, respectively.
Given the recent trend, I prefer to monitor KKR for now.
Market Outlook of S&P500 (04May2026)
Technical Analysis Overview
MACD Indicator
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is trending up.
Chaikin Money Flow
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.46, indicating there is more buying momentum than selling pressure in the market.
Moving Averages
Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term.
Exponential Moving Averages
The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook.
Other Technical Analysis
Using the daily intervals, all 22 technical indicators are pointing to a “Strong Buy”. No indicators are showing a “sell“ rating.
CNN Fear & Greed Index
CNN’s Fear & Greed Index remains in the “Greed” sentiment zone with a score of 67 in the index.
Weekly Outlook
Based on the above, the S&P500 is expected to be bullish entering into the new week.
News and my thoughts from the past week (04May2026)
We are seeing a historic earnings boom. The current year-over-year blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is a whopping +27.1%, more than DOUBLE the +13.1% expected. With ~63% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q1 earnings thus far, we are on track for the highest earnings growth rate since Q4 2021. Meanwhile, Magnificent 7 companies alone are now guiding over $700 BILLION in CapEx spend for 2026 alone. There has never been a more historic time to own assets than now. Asset owners are winning. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
UN boss Guterres just went full doomsday mode on the Strait of Hormuz chaos: If it drags on, we’re staring at global recession, inflation exploding past 6%, 32 million more people shoved into poverty, and 45 million facing starvation. The whole world is paying the price for this mess. - Anotonio Guterres (UN)
The U.S. has now moved 115,600 tons of military equipment into Israel since the Iran war began. 403 flights, 10 ships, 2 more cargo ships docked this morning with another 6,500 tons. At this pace, the U.S. is running a permanent supply chain for a regional war with no end date in sight. - X user Mario Nawfel
"AI could kill us all." - Elon Musk
Brent Crude oil price on 30 Apr 2026
A 5-year backlog on grid transformers just killed half of America's 2026 AI data centers. Sightline Climate tracked 12 GW of 2026 US data center capacity announced across 140 projects. Only 5 GW is actually under construction. 11 GW sits in the "announced" stage with no physical progress despite typical build times of 12-18 months. 25% of those projects haven't disclosed a power strategy at all. - X user Aakash Gupta
Over half of the planet’s internet traffic is now made up of AI bots, per Lumen Technologies
If the Iran war is over, why is Trump moving more military assets to the region Another aircraft carrier, 10k troops, a nuclear capable submarines, more Patriots and THAADs, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, 25 KC-135 Stratotankers. All combat forces. - X user Mario Nawfel
Ken Griffin says the world will end up in a recession if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for up to 12 months.
My Investing Muse (04May2026)
Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies
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Germany is rapidly heading towards a severe economic crisis. Germany's unemployment rate reached 6.4%, the highest since the Covid-19 peak, which also was at 6.4%. - X user Megatron
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Cognizant to cut 4,000 jobs as consulting industry continues to see mass job shedding - MacroEdge
UK business closures average 71,000 every quarter
Chegg is now down 99% from its peak because AI has killed its business entirely. Chegg was a $14.7 billion edtech company that charged students $20 a month for homework answers from a database of 79 million solutions built over a decade. Then ChatGPT launched in November 2022. Five months later Chegg’s CEO admitted it was destroying their business. The stock dropped 48% in a single day. Revenue dropped 49% by Q4 2025. Subscribers collapsed from 5 million to under 3 million. The company fired 67% of its staff in two rounds last year and shut down all US and Canada offices. AI does the same thing instantly for free and explains the concept behind it. It went From $14.7 billion marketcap to $114 million in 39 months. The first company to be officially killed by AI. - X user Bull Theory
This is the first notable casualty from the AI era. Will there be more to come?
My thoughts
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The chart from Crescat shows analyst estimates for next-4Q rolling FCF of AI hyperscalers (MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, ORCL) rising for years but now plunging sharply into 2026—with Oracle flipping negative and combined FCF collapsing. Implication: Massive AI capex is projected to outrun revenue growth, squeezing cash flows hard. This divergence from the rising S&P 500 flags valuation risk and potential margin pressure in big tech despite the hype. Estimates can shift, but it’s a clear “race to the bottom” warning on profitability. - by Grok
Should AI CapEx continue to outrun revenue growth, the expectations on AI ROI should compound. Recently, we noticed an increase in subscription fees for some of the LLMs. Personally, I have started using other open-sourced, affordable models like Kimi. I plan to evaluate the performance after some time, and the experience has been decent thus far.
Middle East Conflict and U.S. Strategy
The recent declaration of the end of war in the Middle East offers the United States a potential opportunity to disengage from the ongoing military conflict in the region. However, there remains a sense of unfinished business, as several objectives—including regime change in Iran, the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, and the lifting of the blockade at the Strait of Hormuz—have not been accomplished. From Iran’s perspective, the cessation of military operations in other regions such as Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank is also a critical demand.
Ceasefire and Ongoing Risks
Despite the ceasefire, the continued presence and movement of military forces and equipment in the region mean that the potential for renewed conflict remains. The ceasefire period may simply serve as a temporary pause, allowing the involved parties to regroup. The American blockade continues to pose a significant threat, as regular maritime traffic has not yet resumed. With rising inflation and oil prices reaching new highs, economic impacts are expected to persist in the coming weeks. It will take time for production and supply chains to normalise. Meanwhile, the American stock market has recently hit record highs. Retail investors remain active, and it is important to monitor the movement of funds, including those managed by institutional investors.
U.S. Economic Conditions and Labour Market
Despite a lower GDP outlook of 2.0% and increasing reports of layoffs, the U.S. has recently achieved one of the lowest jobless claims on record. This apparent contradiction can be explained by the specific definitions and methodologies used in data collection for labour market statistics.
Corporate Earnings Updates
Earnings Summary provided by Tiger Capital Research
Major technology companies such as Microsoft and Apple have announced their earnings in the past week, with results leading to mixed reactions in the stock market. It remains to be seen if more positive developments will emerge in the near future.
Financial Strategy and Outlook
Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.
As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.
Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.
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