๐ŸŽ What the Tigers Say | How does Tigers view Alibaba's Q4 Earnings?

WallStreet_Tiger
05-14

Hi Tigers ๐Ÿฏ, Welcome to "What the Tigers say." ๐Ÿ‘‹

Here's the move driving this week's tape: The coming week includes several notable earnings releases, including $Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$ , $Sea Ltd(SE)$ , $Alibaba(BABA)$ , $Cisco(CSCO)$ , and $Applied Materials(AMAT)$. That's the backdrop for today's question โ€” How does Tigers view $BABA Earnings? โ€” and three Tigers have already staked out different reads.

$Alibaba(BABA)$ reported its Q4 FY2026 (ended March 31, 2026) results on May 13, 2026, showing a 3% revenue increase to 243.4 billion yuan, driven by a 38% surge in Cloud Intelligence and triple-digit AI product growth. Despite the revenue boost, adjusted EPS of $0.09 significantly missed the $1.12 estimate as the company prioritized aggressive AI infrastructure spending and domestic e-commerce competition over short-term margins.

Let's rewind to the two sharpest preview takes from @xc__ , @KYHBKO and opinions from @Deonc upon the recent earnings release

1. @xc__ | Alibaba Cloud's 40% Growth Bomb: When E-Commerce Takes a Backseat to AI Infrastructure

Key points:

- While Wall Street obsesses over $Alibaba(BABA)$ e-commerce margin compression, the real story is unfolding in the cloud stack: 7 consecutive quarters of triple-digit AI revenue growth , analyst forecasts pointing to ~40% cloud revenue acceleration in March 2026

- Cloud Revenue Acceleration : Alibaba Cloud revenue growth projected to hit ~40% YoY in March 2026 quarter, up from 36% in Dec 2025 โ€”first meaningful reacceleration in 2 years.

- Pricing Power Returns : 5-34% price hikes on AI chip services + 30% increase on Cloud Parallel File Storage (effective Apr 18) signal demand outstripping capacity.

๐Ÿ”—Check out full page https://ttm.financial/post/562950643175480

2. @KYHBKO | (Part 2 of 5) Earnings Calendar - Is BABA the black sheep? (11May2026)

Key points:

- Cloud & AI Surge: Alibaba Cloud revenue accelerated by 26%, fueled by triple-digit growth in AI-related products. AI now accounts for over 20% of the Cloud groupโ€™s external revenue.

- Strategic Restructuring: The company integrated Taobao, Tmall, Ele.me, and Fliggy into the Alibaba China E-Commerce Group, aiming to create a comprehensive โ€œAI-eraโ€ consumption platform.

- Innovation Breakthroughs: In early 2026, Alibaba released Qwen3.6-Plus for enterprise agentic AI and the viral โ€œHappy Horseโ€ text-to-video model, which topped global AI leaderboards.

๐Ÿ”— Check out full page https://ttm.financial/post/563008425316376

3. @Deonc | Alibaba Shares Surge Following Earnings Release

Key points:

- Growth Over Profit: Despite missing revenue estimates and a significant hit to profitability, shares surged as investors prioritized a 38% jump in cloud revenue and aggressive market-share expansion.

- AI as a Revenue Engine: CEO Wu Yongming expects over 50% of cloud revenue to come from AI within a year, supported by the new "Alibaba Token Hub" dedicated to monetizing AI investments.

- Sustained Reinvestment: The company is aggressively pivoting domestic e-commerce profits back into user acquisition and AI R&D, a high-spending strategy projected to continue through fiscal year 2027.

๐Ÿ”— Check out full page https://ttm.financial/post/563819118982032

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Which read lines up best with your view โ€” and what would change your mind? Drop your thoughts in the comments and tag another Tiger who should weigh in. ๐Ÿฏ

๐ŸŽ Special Notes: Whoever showed up on the "What the Tigers Say" column will receive 100 Tiger Coins! See you next week!

Alibaba's Q4 Earnings: AI Investment, Mixed Financial Performance, and Future Revenue Growth
Alibaba Group Holding reported its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings, showing a mixed performance. The company faced challenges from heavy AI infrastructure spending and competitive food-delivery price wars, which pressured profits. Despite revenue growth to 282.44 billion yuan, net profit declined to 11.71 billion yuan from 12.96 billion yuan a year earlier. Adjusted EPS was RMB 0.08, and total revenue was RMB 243.38 billion, marking a 3% year-over-year increase. The net profit for the quarter surged to RMB 25.476 billion, up significantly from RMB 12.382 billion in the same period last year. CEO Eddie Wu highlighted significant progress in AI investments, with Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue growth accelerating to 40%, driven by AI-related products. Additionally, AI-related revenue is expected to exceed 50% within a year, becoming the main driver of cloud revenue growth. The company is also focused on reducing quick-commerce losses and leveraging AI as a long-term growth driver amid competitive pressures.
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