Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 01Jun2026)
The following sections outline key macroeconomic forecasts and indicators spanning manufacturing, services, labor markets, and energy sectors, with particular emphasis on metrics influencing upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
1. Manufacturing Sector Indicators
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S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May): The forecast is projected at 55.3, indicating continued expansion and growth within global manufacturing.
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ISM Manufacturing PMI (May): The index is forecasted at 53.3, signalling anticipated growth within the domestic American manufacturing sector.
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ISM Manufacturing Prices (May): A significant point of concern is the high forecast of 85.3. This elevated metric indicates rising producer costs, which are highly likely to be passed down to consumers.
2. Services and Non-Manufacturing Sector Indicators
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S&P Global Services PMI (May): The forecast stands at 50.9, suggesting some growth within the services sector.
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ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May): The index is projected at 53.8, which further supports expectations of sector expansion.
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ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (May): This data is scheduled for release in the upcoming week, with the previous figure standing at 70.7. The ongoing upward trend in service-related prices remains a concern, as these increased costs are expected to impact consumers.
3. Labour Market and Employment Data
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JOLTS Job Openings (April): Job openings are forecasted at 6.87 million. This reflects a marginal improvement from the previous month and serves as a critical reference point for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.
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ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (May): The forecast is set at 116,000. This represents a key employment metric under evaluation by the Federal Reserve.
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Initial Jobless Claims: The forecast is established at 211,000, serving as another vital labor market indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve.
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Average Hourly Earnings (MoM, May): Month-over-month wage growth is expected to be forecast at 0.3%.
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Non-Farm Payrolls (May): Expectations are set at 95,000 jobs, marking a deceleration from the previous figure of 115,000. This data point is highly significant for central bank policy considerations.
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Unemployment Rate (May): The unemployment rate is projected to arrive at approximately 4.3%. Any significant deviations from this figure may introduce heightened market volatility.
4. Energy Indicators
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Crude Oil Inventories: This metric remains a leading market indicator, closely monitored as a reference point for drawdowns by oil producers in anticipation of shifting demand.
Earnings Calendar (01Jun2026)
Here are some earnings of interest in the coming week: Dollar General, HPE, Broadcom, CrowdStrike and C3.AI.
Let us look at C3 AI.
The stock price has fallen 59.50% from a year ago. Based on analysts' sentiment, their sentiment is “Neutral” towards the stock. With a price target of $8.91, there is a potential downside of 18.28%. Based on Technical Analysis, there is a recommendation of “Strong Buy”.
1. Income Statement Metrics
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Revenue Growth: Total revenue increased overall from $252M in 2022 to $307M for the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM). Notably, performance peaked in 2025 with an annual revenue of $389M.
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Net Income / Loss: Profitability trends remain severely strained. The company recorded a net loss of $192M in 2022, which has significantly worsened to a peak deficit of $434M during the TTM period.
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Earnings Per Share (EPS): Reflecting the deepening net losses, EPS has steadily declined from -$1.84 in 2022 to -$3.16 in the TTM.
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Financial Outlook: The combination of widening losses and declining EPS indicates a concerning trajectory, with no near-term indication that the business is approaching a break-even point under its current operational model.
2. Balance Sheet Metrics
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Asset Performance: Total assets experienced a contraction over the reported period, falling from $1.1B in 2022 to $1.02B in 2025.
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Liabilities: Total liabilities saw a marginal increase, rising from $181M in 2022 to $187M by 2025.
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Share Dilution: The company has continually expanded its outstanding share count, resulting in ongoing shareholder dilution between 2022 and 2025.
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Tangible Book Value: Reflecting the erosion of the asset base and capital structure, the tangible book value decreased from $988M in 2022 to $837M in 2025.
3. Cash Flow Statement Metrics
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Operating Cash Flow: The company has failed to generate positive cash from its core operations, remaining consistently negative since 2022 and currently sitting at -$124M for the TTM.
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Free Cash Flow (FCF): Driven by operational deficits, free cash flow deteriorated further, declining from -$90M in 2022 to -$127M for the TTM.
News about C3 AI (Q1/2026 - from Google Gemini)
During the first part of 2026, C3 AI underwent a major corporate and operational overhaul. Thomas M. Siebel returned as Chief Executive Officer on May 8, 2026, while Stephen Ehigian transitioned to the role of President following a brief leadership tenure. To address sales disruptions and reduce cash burn, the company executed a large-scale restructuring plan, generating approximately $135 million in annualized non-GAAP cost savings. Financially, C3 AI faced a challenging transition period as total revenue dropped 19% year-over-year to $70.3 million, plagued by poor sales execution, while net losses widened significantly to $116.8 million. Consequently, management withdrew its full-year fiscal guidance. Operationally, the company maintained a solid $711.9 million cash position and secured strategic deployments, including a notable U.S. Army military contract using C3 Agentic AI for contested logistics. Market volatility pushed the stock to a 52-week low of $7.68 in late March before stabilizing near $10.00 by May.
The forecast of the EPS and revenue during the coming earnings is -$0.376 and $50.13M respectively. This is a good drop from previous quarters. With this, I recommend to stay away from this stock.
Market Outlook of S&P500 (01Jun2026)
Technical Analysis Overview
MACD Indicator
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 has started a downtrend but a reversal could be in the cards.
Chaikin Money Flow
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.19, indicating there is more buying momentum than selling pressure in the market.
Moving Averages
Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term.
Exponential Moving Averages
The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook.
Other Technical Analysis
Using “Daily” intervals, the technical indicators are showing a “Strong Buy” rating. 22 indicators have a “Buy” rating, and none have a “Sell” rating.
CNN Fear & Greed Index
The market remains in the “Greed” zone with a score of 60.
Weekly Outlook
Based on the above, the S&P500 should be leaning bullish entering the new week.
News and my thoughts from the past week (01Jun2026)
My Investing Muse (01Jun2026)
Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies
More than 20 trucking-related companies filed either Chapter 7 liquidation or Chapter 11 restructuring cases during the past 30 days, according to bankruptcy filings compiled by FreightWaves.
Low-cost holiday carrier Magnicharters filed for bankruptcy protection in Mexico City approximately a month after suspending all flights for what it initially hoped would be a period of two weeks. In China, northwestern regional carrier Joy Air filed for bankruptcy protection and entered the early stage of the restructuring process at the start of the week after canceling all flights back in April. Zenith Aviation in administration over “cashflow issues, unpaid debtors” - The Street
My thoughts
1. The Realities of AI Implementation: Governance and Financial Runways
While AI is undoubtedly a permanent fixture of our future, recent market anxieties regarding an “AI bubble” have highlighted significant operational bottlenecks.
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The Human Element & Internal Sabotage: There is a growing concern around delayed internal reporting. Employees may be intentionally withholding system issues or even engaging in data poisoning. This friction often stems from a fear of retrenchment or a desire for retaliation against automation.
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The “Garbage In, Garbage Out” Risk: Data integrity and governance must be prioritised. Whether deliberate or accidental, skewed data inputs will compromise AI outputs, threatening business continuity.
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Budgetary Burnout: High-profile players, including Microsoft and Uber, have faced pauses in their AI integration strategies after burning through their annual AI budgets prematurely.
Business Continuity Concern: If companies deplete their capital on AI before it can successfully automate functions like customer service, they risk operational paralysis. The market will react sharply if businesses become unable to handle basic client queries due to poor budget management.
2. Geopolitical Friction and Market Resilience
Global stability remains fragile, though the markets have shown a somewhat hardened resilience to ongoing friction.
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The Middle East: Iran’s rejection of Donald Trump’s latest ceasefire requirements leaves the fragile peace process in limbo. While the markets have largely priced in this tension over the last few weeks, any escalation into a wider regional conflict will likely trigger a severe negative market reaction.
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The Gulf Supply Chain Dependency: A recent trip to Indonesia and conversations with local business owners underscored a stark reality: the world cannot easily replace the 30% market share of oil and gas originating from the Gulf region. Furthermore, this dependency extends to critical raw materials like fertilizers, helium, and sulfuric acid. Finding alternative suppliers for a player holding nearly a third of the global market is virtually impossible in the short term.
3. Environmental Reminders: A Lesson in Humility
Finally, a personal reflection from my time in Indonesia serves as a reminder of our vulnerability to natural forces. The region experienced over 1,000 earthquakes in a single week. While most were minor on the Richter scale, it is a stark reminder that we must always respect Mother Nature.
Financial Strategy and Outlook
Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.
As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.
Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.
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