If I had to choose between chasing the IPO narrative and shorting the sector, I'd do neither aggressively.
The risk with "SpaceX sympathy trades" is that investors often assume capital will flow into the entire space sector. In reality, a blockbuster IPO can attract money away from smaller names as investors rotate into the perceived winner.
Between RKLB and ASTS, I find RKLB easier to justify fundamentally. RKLB already has launch revenue, a growing space systems business, and a clearer path to scaling. ASTS is exciting, but ASTS remains heavily dependent on execution, regulatory milestones, and future network deployment.
As for the bearish case, Steve Eisman's valuation concerns are understandable. Space stocks have benefited from narrative expansion, and when sentiment turns, high-duration stories can fall hard. However, shorting a sector driven by headlines, retail enthusiasm, and a major IPO can be dangerous.
My preference would be:
Long-term investor: accumulate quality names like RKLB on significant weakness.
Speculative trader: wait until after the SpaceX IPO settles and liquidity flows become clearer.
Short seller: be very cautious, because crowded shorts can be squeezed violently if the IPO exceeds expectations.
The biggest question is whether the SpaceX listing expands interest in the space economy or simply absorbs most of the available capital. If it's the latter, many "space proxies" could continue underperforming even if the SpaceX IPO itself is a success.
Comments