Part 5 of 5 - My investing muse (08Jun2026)

KYHBKO
06-07 23:20

My Investing Muse (08Jun2026)

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies

US-based technology employers announced 38,242 job cuts in May, the highest monthly total since August 2024, according to Challenger Gray data. Year-to-date, tech sector job cuts rose +66% YoY, to 123,653, the highest among all sectors, and 3x larger than transportation, the next closest sector. AI was the most cited reason for job cuts for the 3rd consecutive month, with 38,579 cuts attributed to AI in May alone, the highest since Challenger began tracking in 2023. This accounts for 40% of all layoffs announced last month, up from just 7% in January. Year-to-date, AI has been cited in 87,714 job cuts in 2026, or 22% of the total, already surpassing the 54,836 recorded in all of 2025 and 12,742 in 2024. AI continues to reshape the labour market. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

Maeve Aerospace, a Netherlands-based hybrid-electric airplane developer that was initially treated like a dream child with the potential to take aviation into a new and more sustainable direction, was declared insolvent by a Dutch court at the start of June after failing to meet a €20 million funding round. On June 3, Bournemouth-based cargo carrier European Cargo Limited was also declared insolvent by a British court. - The Street

My thoughts on …

Geopolitical and Supply Risks

The Gulf conflict remains under a fragile ceasefire—supported more by words than by actions. Tensions appear likely to persist, and with oil prices moving toward $100 a barrel, the risk of renewed inflationary pressure is rising. The region is a key exporter of crude oil, LNG, helium, fertilizers, and other critical commodities, so any disruption could affect both supply and global supply chains.

Market Reaction and Key Risks

Last Friday’s selloff was one of the sharpest on record, and APAC markets could face similar pressure. While some investors are attributing the move to weakness in hyperscalers and the broader AI trade, others are watching the bond market closely. Another important factor is the yen carry trade, where investment returns may no longer justify the cost of borrowed funding.

Inflation and Policy Outlook

Still, a single day does not establish a trend. If the weakness extends over several sessions, market volatility could increase further. Upcoming CPI data will be especially important, as inflation may be moving back toward levels that could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider further rate hikes rather than cuts. Although the Fed leadership has taken a hawkish tone, a broader consensus among policymakers would still be needed to shift the rate outlook. With both CPI and PPI forecasts pointing to firmer inflation, markets may remain volatile in the weeks ahead.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY)$

Market Crashes, Price in Rate Hikes? When to Start Picking up Chips?
US chip companies lost roughly $1.3 trillion in market cap in one day. The crash is essentially "crowded AI hardware trade + interest rate repricing + overstretched semiconductor expectations." Friday's non-farm payrolls delivered another blow: 172,000 new jobs added in May, clearly beating expectations, unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, hourly wages up 3.4%yoy. Rate-cut expectations back down. On top of this, the SpaceX IPO will siphon off hundreds of billions in liquidity. With this crash, will you panic and head for the exit, or treat it as a chance to get on board?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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