My base case: Above $135.
Rough probabilities:
Above $135: 60%
Below $135: 40%
The bull case is that:
Starlink keeps compounding revenue growth.
Investors continue assigning premium multiples to AI, space, and infrastructure assets.
Index inclusion creates sustained institutional ownership.
The bear case is that:
The IPO enthusiasm fades.
Lockup expirations increase supply.
The market decides the valuation got too far ahead of fundamentals.
My prediction: SPCX opens around $165–180 (+22% to +33%) and finishes its first year around $170–220, assuming the broader market remains supportive. That's bullish, but not nearly as bullish as some of the projections circulating right now.
SpaceX SPCX Drops 4.5% Below $150 — JPMorgan Calls Merger 'Rational,' Is $220 Credible?
SpaceX (SPCX) fell another 4.51%, breaching $150 as tech sold off on geopolitical headwinds. The bull-bear split is stark: JPMorgan called a potential Musk-led SpaceX-Tesla merger "strategically sound," and one forecast sees SPCX at $220 by year-end — while short-seller Jim Chanos mocked its valuation as bubble excess. With a $220 target squaring off against bubble warnings, do you trust the upside case, or stay cautious on a high-valuation name?
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