My base case: Above $135.
Rough probabilities:
Above $135: 60%
Below $135: 40%
The bull case is that:
Starlink keeps compounding revenue growth.
Investors continue assigning premium multiples to AI, space, and infrastructure assets.
Index inclusion creates sustained institutional ownership.
The bear case is that:
The IPO enthusiasm fades.
Lockup expirations increase supply.
The market decides the valuation got too far ahead of fundamentals.
My prediction: SPCX opens around $165–180 (+22% to +33%) and finishes its first year around $170–220, assuming the broader market remains supportive. That's bullish, but not nearly as bullish as some of the projections circulating right now.
SpaceX Crashes 13.6% Ahead of Lockup Expiry — Even Trillion-Dollar Talk Can't Help?
SpaceX −13.61% Wednesday, post-earnings selling amplified by the lockup ahead of it, and one of the Nasdaq's biggest drags. Musk raised the stakes into the slide, saying annual revenue could reach $1 trillion sooner than planned. The market was looking past that: up to ~911.5 million insider and employee shares — 20% of the unlockable total — turn sellable today. Prediction markets put roughly 18% odds on a Tesla-SpaceX merger being announced in 2026. Narrative expanding, supply arriving. Only the first post-lockup print matters?
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