I wouldn't anchor on either $63 or $190. The huge valuation gap shows how sensitive SpaceX is to assumptions about Starlink, Starship, and future markets that don't fully exist yet.
The bull case is that SpaceX becomes a global infrastructure company, combining launch, satellite internet, and potentially logistics. In that scenario, 50% annual growth for several years could justify today's valuation.
The bear case is that expectations have run far ahead of execution. Even a great company can be a poor investment if growth merely meets, rather than exceeds, lofty forecasts.
My view: SpaceX may become the next Amazon, but at current prices investors are already paying for that possibility. The company is extraordinary. The valuation leaves much less room for error.
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