I am bearish on SpaceX’s curre

I am bearish on SpaceX’s current valuations. It is quite an insane bet that any company that compound revenue at almost 50% annually for the next 10 years. That is asking for 10 years of consistent outsized performance. In the longer term, I do believe that SpaceX might be able to pull off its space data centre but it is still speculative at this point in time as nothing has been demonstrated yet, not even a prototype is available. Sending rockets and satellites are not quite the same as the picture painted by Elon.

I think this is the most expensive leap of faith that the Wall Street has taken and most are forced to take it as the various index fund managers buy it. This feels like FOMO where many buy the latest hype of town.

I think the next one year will give clarity. There is no need to rush into it now. I wouldn’t be suprised that the price will drop to sound the $60-70. That might be a good and safe entry point just to gain exposure to a speculative future.

SpaceX Surges 6.1% Through $116B Lockup Expiry — Is the Overhang Truly Gone?

SpaceX +6.14% Thursday, straight through the largest lockup expiry on record — 911.5 million insider shares, roughly $116 billion, turning sellable. It dipped at the open, then reversed. Attention swung back to the first earnings report: core profit beat, segment losses narrowed sharply, only AI capex ran slightly hot. Cathie Wood bought the dip, JPMorgan revised its target, Musk called Starlink undervalued. Peer SSPC still fell 12.16%. Biggest overhang cleared, sector not following — inflection, or just the end of the selling?

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Comments

bubbly9
06-15
bubbly9
Starlink is the real engine, but pricing 10 straight years of 50% growth now is rough. Who's underwriting that $60-70 floor?

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It dipped at the open, then reversed. Attention swung back to the first earnings report: core profit beat, segment losses narrowed sharply, only AI capex ran slightly hot. Cathie Wood bought the dip, JPMorgan revised its target, Musk called Starlink undervalued. Peer SSPC still fell 12.16%. Biggest overhang cleared, sector not following — inflection, or just the end of the selling?","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3e2f4792e06a23b881ae0c37c9b65a4"}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>I am bearish on SpaceX’s current valuations. It is quite an insane bet that any company that compound revenue at almost 50% annually for the next 10 years. That is asking for 10 years of consistent outsized performance. In the longer term, I do believe that SpaceX might be able to pull off its space data centre but it is still speculative at this point in time as nothing has been demonstrated yet, not even a prototype is available. Sending rockets and satellites are not quite the same as the picture painted by Elon. \n \n \n \nI think this is the most expensive leap of faith that the Wall Street has taken and most are forced to take it as the various index fund managers buy it. This feels like FOMO where many buy the latest hype of town. \n \n \n \nI think the next one year will give clarity. There is no need to rush into it now. I wouldn’t be suprised that the price will drop to sound the $60-70. That might be a good and safe entry point just to gain exposure to a speculative future.</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>I am bearish on SpaceX’s current valuations. It is quite an insane bet that any company that compound revenue at almost 50% annually for the next 10 years. That is asking for 10 years of consistent outsized performance. In the longer term, I do believe that SpaceX might be able to pull off its space data centre but it is still speculative at this point in time as nothing has been demonstrated yet, not even a prototype is available. Sending rockets and satellites are not quite the same as the picture painted by Elon. \n \n \n \nI think this is the most expensive leap of faith that the Wall Street has taken and most are forced to take it as the various index fund managers buy it. This feels like FOMO where many buy the latest hype of town. \n \n \n \nI think the next one year will give clarity. There is no need to rush into it now. I wouldn’t be suprised that the price will drop to sound the $60-70. That might be a good and safe entry point just to gain exposure to a speculative future.</body></html>","text":"I am bearish on SpaceX’s current valuations. It is quite an insane bet that any company that compound revenue at almost 50% annually for the next 10 years. That is asking for 10 years of consistent outsized performance. In the longer term, I do believe that SpaceX might be able to pull off its space data centre but it is still speculative at this point in time as nothing has been demonstrated yet, not even a prototype is available. Sending rockets and satellites are not quite the same as the picture painted by Elon. I think this is the most expensive leap of faith that the Wall Street has taken and most are forced to take it as the various index fund managers buy it. This feels like FOMO where many buy the latest hype of town. I think the next one year will give clarity. There is no need to rush into it now. I wouldn’t be suprised that the price will drop to sound the $60-70. 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Who's underwriting that $60-70 floor?","text":"Starlink is the real engine, but pricing 10 straight years of 50% growth now is rough. Who's underwriting that $60-70 floor?","html":"Starlink is the real engine, but pricing 10 straight years of 50% growth now is rough. Who's underwriting that $60-70 floor?","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/575102071834184"}