$IREN Ltd(IREN)$ Development Pipeline:
1) Childress, Texas
750MW, with a total revenue potential of $6-7B.
Over 2,600 construction workers are currently on-site. Commissioning is actively underway for the high-density Nvidia GB300 superclusters.
First capacity is set to go to $Microsoft(MSFT)$ in Q3 2026.
2) Sweetwater, Texas
2GW, with a total revenue potential of $18-20B.
The foundational 1.4 GW substation was successfully energized and connected to the Texas grid.
Construction has commenced on the first 200 MW block of liquid-cooled data centers tailored for advanced architectures, including Nvidia Vera Rubin.
The initial 300 MW capacity is scheduled to begin rolling online in 2027. (Hyperscaler contract is imminent)
Capacity is to go online gradually in 28 and 29.
3) British Columbia, Canada
3 small data centers, with a total capacity of 160MW. total revenue opportunity of $1.3-1.6B.
Transition away from bitcoin mining is underway and should be fully completed in 2027.
4) Kioawa, Oklahoma.
1.6GW, with a total revenue potential of $14-16B.
Ramp is to be expected from 2028, with full capacity likely online by 2030 or later.
5) Spain
490MW, with a total revenue potential of $4-5B.
Just acquired the development of sites for €165 million.
An initial 8.5 MW phase in Galicia is already operational. The remaining 480+ MW consists of secured, grid-connected ready-to-build sites across Extremadura and Galicia.
Immediate incremental expansions happening through late 2026, with the bulk of the heavy campus construction scaling from 2027 through 2029.
6) Bundey, Australia
800MW, with a total revenue potential of $6-8B.
This is a projected $10B+ mega-project that will become one of the largest single data center campuses in the entire Asia-Pacific.
Bundey is a remote locality with virtually zero residents, so there will be no protests or delays.
Furthermore, $IREN signed an electricity connection agreement to draw up to the full 800 MW of capacity without requiring any network or grid upgrades, saving billions of dollars and years of bureaucratic delays.
Heavy construction will ramp up over the next 18 months, with initial grid energization targeted to begin in 2028, scaling out in phases toward the full 800 MW capacity by the end of the decade.
7) Total close to 6GW of capacity and revenue potential of over $50B.
IREN 2028 Analyst Estimates:
Revenue: $6.36B
EBITDA: $4.8B
Considering their pipeline of 5+ GW, this seems extremely low.
Simply put, analysts do not believe the company will meaningfully scale Childress (750MW) and Sweetwater (2 GW).
If they are wrong, the stock could go to $100-200.
If they are right, the stock will stagnate.
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