$IBM's Loss Could Be $MU's Biggest Win Yet

Michael Esther
07-15 11:38

$IBM(IBM)$ crashing 25% in 1 day is extremely bullish for $Micron Technology(MU)$ $Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$ $SK hynix(SKHY)$

Here's why:

Read the letter closely.

In the final weeks of June, $IBM's own clients stopped buying $IBM and started hoarding servers, storage, and memory instead.

Here are 4 reasons I think this letter matters a lot:

1. This came from the victim, not the salesman.

$MU and $SKHY have been telling us for months that memory is tight. But of course they'd say that, it's their product. So I take it with a grain of salt.

This is different. IBM just lost deals because their customers ditched them to go buy memory instead. That's the buyer telling us the shortage is real. That's the confirmation I've been waiting for.

2. People are paying up before prices even rise.

The clients rushed to lock in supply "ahead of expected price increases."

Sit with that for a second. Nobody pays extra today unless they're scared it'll cost more, or won't exist, tomorrow. When buyers act like that, memory makers win twice: they sell more and they charge more. To me, that's the whole story.

3. Even $IBM got caught off guard.

$IBM sits inside these companies. They see the spending before anyone else does. And even they said they didn't expect money to rotate this fast.

If the people with the best seat in the house were surprised, then I don't trust the current estimates. I think the numbers are still too low.

4. This isn't extra spending, it's stolen spending.

Here's the part I keep coming back to. AI isn't just adding a new bill on top of everyone's budget. It's eating the old budget alive, pulling money out of software, mainframes, and consulting to feed itself.

So this isn't just "more demand."

It's a fight over who gets the dollar. And right now, memory and infrastructure are the ones winning it.

Do you agree? This is the honest truth.

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