$Pfizer(PFE)$’s August 4 results will measure whether newer oncology, migraine and specialty products are growing quickly enough to offset declining COVID-19 revenue and approaching patent losses.
First-quarter results, reported May 5 for the period ended March 29, were mixed. Revenue increased 5% as reported to $14.45 billion but only 2% operationally. Excluding Comirnaty and Paxlovid, revenue grew 7% operationally, while launched and acquired products grew 22%. Adjusted earnings nevertheless declined 18% to $0.75 per share.
Pfizer reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance of $59.5–$62.5 billion and adjusted earnings guidance of $2.80–$3.00 per share. Pfizer’s first-quarter release provides the results and outlook.
The bullish thesis is that portfolio renewal is becoming visible. Padcev revenue grew 39% operationally, Nurtec/Vydura increased 41% and Lorbrena rose 32%. Pfizer also spent $2.5 billion on internal research and development during the quarter and expects to begin roughly 20 pivotal studies during 2026. Successful oncology and obesity trials could create meaningful new revenue sources.
The bearish problem is the gap between product growth and total earnings. Comirnaty revenue declined 59% operationally and Paxlovid fell 63%. Pfizer expects approximately $1.5 billion of 2026 revenue pressure from recent or impending generic and biosimilar competition.
R&D spending increased 12% operationally, while adjusted cost of sales rose faster than revenue. Pipeline investment is necessary, but late-stage setbacks could leave shareholders with the expense and insufficient replacement sales.
Pfizer closed at $25.01 on July 31 after trading between $24.69 and $25.17. The close above the opening price was modestly constructive, making $24.65–$24.70 support and $25.15–$25.20 immediate resistance. A larger trend change would require improved forward estimates, not simply a break of this narrow range. Pfizer’s investor-relations page confirms its August 4 second-quarter presentation.
The evidence leans neutral. Newer products are growing rapidly and the valuation is not demanding, but declining pandemic revenue, generic competition and heavy pipeline spending obscure the recovery. The view would become bullish if non-COVID growth produces higher total earnings guidance; it would turn bearish if major trials disappoint or patent erosion forces another forecast reduction. This is personal opinion for education and is not financial advice.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The views expressed are personal opinions based on publicly available information and are subject to change without notice. Investors should conduct their own research and consider their financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any investment decisions. I do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information presented.
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