The first move is likely to come from insiders, not new buyers.

An unlock does not mean all 911.5 million shares will be sold, but it means the market must suddenly absorb the possibility of much greater supply. Even if only 5% to 10% of eligible holders sell to diversify or pay taxes, that is still a meaningful increase in tradable shares.

Three scenarios are worth watching:

Bullish: Insider selling is modest and institutions absorb the supply. Investors conclude confidence remains high, and the stock recovers after initial volatility.

Neutral (most likely): Heavy trading with sharp intraday swings as profit-taking meets dip-buying. The stock consolidates while the market gauges actual selling pressure.

Bearish: Large insider sales coincide with concerns over elevated AI capex. The market interprets management as taking advantage of peak optimism, extending the pullback.

The Nvidia purchase commitment is a double-edged sword. It pressures near-term cash flow but could strengthen SpaceX's AI and satellite capabilities if those investments generate high future returns.

Overall, the earnings report suggests the business remains strong, but over the next few sessions the stock will likely trade more on share supply and sentiment than on fundamentals. Once the unlock is absorbed, investors will shift their focus back to execution, AI investment returns, and revenue growth.