I lean inflection, but not confirmation yet. Absorbing a $116 billion lock-up without collapsing is arguably more important than the +6.14% itself. The market knew a huge supply event was coming, sellers finally had liquidity, yet buyers overwhelmed the opening weakness. That suggests much of the unlock fear was already priced in.

The earnings backdrop helps: stronger core profitability and narrowing losses give investors something fundamental to buy after the sell-off. Cathie Wood and JPMorgan may reinforce sentiment, but they are secondary to the price action.

The warning is SSPC falling 12.16%. This is not yet a broad space-sector recovery. I would call it SpaceX-specific capitulation potentially turning into an inflection. Follow-through over the next few sessions, especially on strong volume without another unlock-driven sell-off, would make the signal much more convincing.