There's really not much point in looking at SPY's options activity anymore — it's really hard to make it drop. If it does drop, just sell puts.
The Trump Account is basically a cheat code for the S&P 500. It indirectly turns every oversold trillion-dollar stock into a market-lifting reserve. So don't be fooled by AVGO getting hammered — it's a bear trap, storing up fuel for the broader market rally. A block trade opened 10,000 contracts of the 355 Sell Put $AVGO 20260831 355.0 PUT$ — the trader is definitely betting on this dynamic.
The only thing is, Trump isn't entirely satisfied with the current account registration numbers yet, so he's stepped up the incentives.
On August 11, CNBC reported that pre-tax wages can now be directly deposited into Trump Accounts. Bessent stated: "Today, the Treasury Department issued guidance allowing employers to contribute up to $2,500 tax-free per year per employee's dependent, and allowing employees to elect to deposit pre-tax funds directly into these accounts — which will help families grow their Trump Accounts."
Registration hit 6 million in mid-June and 7 million by the end of July. Considering that anyone under 18 is eligible — and there were roughly 73.1 million children under 18 in the U.S. in 2024 — my earlier offhand guess of 50 million doesn't seem that far-fetched. In any case, hitting 10 million is definitely a target. At this pace, the S&P can't have a major crash before at least October.
And then before October, Anthropic is preparing to go public. Wall Street's playbook is always one move setting up the next.
I originally expected SPY to pull back to at least 760 — not sure if there will be more volatility next week. In any case, a bearish block trade opened 20,000 contracts of the 755 put $SPY 20260918 755.0 PUT$ . Even if the other side has a cheat code, you can't assume it's infallible. Against force majeure, you still have to position bearishly when the data says so.
Theoretically, if the broader market can't pull back, then small-caps — which don't have the same support — should get crushed. Someone opened 50,000 contracts of the IWM 293 put $IWM 20260918 293.0 PUT$ , notional roughly $15 million, betting on a pullback to the 20-day MA. But so far, small-caps are holding up even better. The only sector getting hurt in this pullback is semiconductors.
The shakeout is all about giving people hope when confidence is shattered, then delivering a blow when things get overextended. Hynix's buyback announcement today is exactly that — announcing a $28+ billion buyback at this moment has been extremely effective at halting the downtrend. If it weren't for this buyback support, with the magnitude of tonight's semiconductor sell-off, storage could have become the trigger for a broader crash.
Several deep OTM Sell Put institutional block trades opened yesterday — for example, the 105 Sell Put $SKHY 20260925 105.0 PUT$ opened 23,000 contracts. This basically tells us this shakeout will last a long time, likely until Triple Witching on September 18. So for big money, the most laid-back strategy is deep OTM Sell Puts.
Another semiconductor deep OTM Sell Put is INTC's 70 put $INTC 20261002 70.0 PUT$ , opening 17,000 contracts. Worth noting: the November 20 92.5 Sell Put $INTC 20261120 92.5 PUT$ remains open.
The stock's surge triggered heavy volume on the 2000 Call $SNDK 20260821 2000.0 CALL$ — which then got harvested by market makers.
The bull-bear battle on SPCX rivals Tesla in its heyday, but SPCX's public sentiment environment is far better than Tesla's. 13F filings show that basically every major issuer holds SPCX.
Options openings range from long-dated 200 Calls to bearish 100 Puts. But in the near term, the stock is still targeting 150, so selling puts remains viable.
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