With this earnings report, NVIDIA has cemented its status as the Federal Reserve of the AI world. Going forward, its earnings releases will be roughly equivalent to macroeconomic data releases. I haven't figured out the full implications yet, but one thing is clear: the nature of the company has changed.
Wednesday's largest block trade combo was Sell Put 200 + Buy Call 220 + Sell Call 230. As today's opening showed — opening at 222, hitting 225 intraday — it was remarkably precise.
Next week, there's no need to look at open interest data or GEX analysis. Just reference today's intraday block trade: the September 4-expiry 235 Put $NVDA 20260904 235.0 PUT$ — volume 9,195 contracts, notional $11.21 million.
Direction is clear. End of story.
The biggest question right now is what Warsh will say at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Gold is being pre-positioned for a top: Sell Call $GLD 20261120 445.0 CALL$ . There's also a hedged bullish combo: Sell Put GLD20261016400.0PUTGLD20261016400.0PUT + Buy Call $GLD 20261016 450.0 CALL$ .
Although we don't know what Warsh's stance will be, gold is expected to consolidate. At the same time, we're seeing Sell Calls on Hong Kong and China A-share ETFs: $KWEB 20261016 27.0 CALL$ $ASHR 20270416 35.0 CALL$ , along with a Buy Put on $FXI 20270319 32.0 PUT$ .
From options activity, you can feel volatility declining. Previously, bearish put strikes above 800 were rare. The rise in strike prices is a good sign — it indicates expectations of sharp volatility are fading.
There are several call combos selling near-term Calls $MU 20260925 950.0 CALL$ and buying long-dated Calls $MU 20261016 950.0 CALL$ . The basic idea is to short volatility before Triple Witching and go long after Triple Witching.
A collar strategy appeared: Sell Call $SPCX 20261218 150.0 CALL$ + Buy Put $SPCX 20261218 115.0 PUT$.
That said, the stock is unlikely to break below 130 in the near term $SPCX 20260904 130.0 PUT$ .
Comments