Weekly Report | USD Up, Gold Crowded, Bonds Cheap

Here’s the topics & takeaways from my latest report —it provides some high-level insights into how I am currently seeing Macro & Markets:

1. USD: continue to watch for short/medium-term upside risk in the US dollar as technicals, sentiment, positioning turn up, policy pivots, and geopolitical risks loom.

2. Gold: gold technicals have flipped to bullish (from previous bearish), but a number of downside risk flags remain (expensive valuations, crowded positioning, consensus bullish sentiment).

3. Treasuries: compelling contrarian bullish setup in bonds (cheap valuations, bearish sentiment, very low allocations/positioning, high risk perceptions), but still awaiting the macro/technical confirmation.

4. Risk Tables: overall there are plenty of strong and credible upside risks for growth/risk-assets, but there is a slight skew to downside risks, particularly around geopolitics, inflation, rates.

5. TAA Review: continue to favor growth assets (but with nuance: neutral equities, over commodities and REITs), funding by underweight to cash (mild bullish on bonds).

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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