My 3-phase playbook for trading a “hot” or hyped event:
1️⃣ Let the initial hype fade
The first week is usually pure excitement. I don’t chase it.
2️⃣ Let the “it’s down a little, time to buy” crowd fade
Usually months 1–2. This is where the early dip buyers get impatient.
3️⃣ Buy when boredom and pain peak
Usually around months 3–6 after the original event.
We saw this play out almost perfectly with the $SpaceX(SPCX)$ IPO.
By the 3–6 month window, you’re often looking at a much better setup:
• Price has stabilized
• The insane premium starts to disappear
• Risk becomes easier to manage
• You can actually build a meaningful position in great assets
The best way to maximize these situations?
Trade the anticipation, not the hype.
If the event date is known, ride the anticipation and run-up → take profits into the actual event → step aside → then look to re-enter months later when everyone has stopped caring.
The crowd wants the headline.
I want the asset after the excitement is gone. 👀
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