The market has taken the AI slowdown call seriously, but so far it is pricing risk to the pace of compute growth, not the end of the compute boom.

That explains why chips and other “picks and shovels” were hit hardest while hyperscalers held up much better. The real confirmation would be cancelled GPU orders, delayed data centres or actual capex cuts. With hyperscaler capex still projected around US$795B this year and US$1.08T in 2027, we have not seen that yet.

Tuesday’s chip rebound suggests Monday may have been an initial risk repricing. I’d watch capex guidance and orders next. If those get cut, the slowdown trade becomes much more fundamental.