9/28–10/2 Weekly Options | OpenAI's Big Catalyst

① Weekly Market Overview

Last week, the core tension in U.S. equities shifted from "can AI keep rallying" to "can AI growth + high rates + energy risk be digested simultaneously."

On the AI front, Meta's Muse topped the U.S. App Store free chart, with Meta surging 12.9% for the week. AMD, Intel, and Arm also strengthened in tandem, as the market began trading the new CPU, inference, and consumer entry-point demand that AI Agents are expected to drive.

On the other hand, Middle East tensions escalated again. On 9/26, U.S. President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, making energy supply risk a key variable for oil prices and inflation expectations this week.

This week's core focus: AI looks to earnings and event catalysts, while the market must simultaneously watch rates, oil prices, and inflation.

② This Week's Event Calendar

9/28 | Monday — New developments in the U.S.-Iran situation over the weekend. Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. At Monday's open, first observe reactions in crude oil, energy stocks, and Treasury yields.

9/29 | Tuesday | OpenAI DevDay — OpenAI's developer conference takes place, with the company confirming a keynote and technical announcements in San Francisco. The market's focus isn't on a single product name, but on whether Agent capabilities become further commercialized — potentially moving AI-related names like META, GOOGL, AMD, and INTC.

9/30 | Wednesday | Core PCE + MU Earnings — Core PCE is a key inflation indicator. After the close, Micron reports earnings, with the market focused on DRAM, NAND, HBM4, AI data center demand, and next-quarter guidance.

10/1 | Thursday | Tesla + Nike — Tesla Roadster event, with the market watching for product and mass-production news. After the close, Nike reports earnings, with focus on revenue, gross margin, the China market, and second-half recovery guidance.

10/2 | Friday | Nonfarm Payrolls — September nonfarm payrolls are released. If employment and wages beat expectations, it could reinforce the "higher rates for longer" trade; if notably weaker, it could reignite rate-cut expectations.

③ Event and Volatility Observations

SPY | Index Enters Positive Gamma, 775 Is the First Resistance

Closed Friday at 771.35, above the 20-day MA of 765.35. This week's implied options volatility is approximately ±1.26%, corresponding to 761–782.

Gamma flip point at 768.68 — currently in positive Gamma territory. Call Wall at 775, Put Wall at 761.

Key observations: The market structure is relatively stable. 775 is an important upside observation level, and 761 is the downside defense level. Only if 775 is broken would further observation toward 785 be needed; if 761 breaks, volatility could expand again.

QQQ | AI Still Strong, But Pressure Emerging in the 745–758 Range

Closed Friday at 744.50. This week's implied volatility is ±1.91%, with a range of approximately 730–759.

Gamma flip point at 739.68 — currently in positive Gamma. Call Wall at 745, Put Wall at 730, maximum positive Gamma at 758.

Key observations: 745 is the immediate resistance, and 758 is the next level up. If AI sees new catalysts, QQQ first needs to digest options pressure around 745.

IWM | Small Caps Still at a Key Position

Closed Friday at 281.97. This week's implied volatility is ±2%, with a range of approximately 276.5–287.5.

Gamma flip point at 285 — currently still in negative Gamma territory. Put Wall at 280, maximum negative Gamma at 277.

Key observations: Focus on 280 and 285. Breaking below 280 could amplify volatility; reclaiming 285 would signal structural improvement. This also corresponds to the current market state of "contesting around the 30-week MA."

XLF | An Important Observation Window for the Rates Trade

Closed Friday at 54.84. This week's implied range is 53.5–55.5, with IV historical position at approximately 53%. Gamma flip point at 56.2 — currently still in negative Gamma territory.

Financials this week mainly hinge on two things: Treasury yields + economic data. Continued rate increases could raise market volatility, while PCE and nonfarm payrolls will directly influence rate expectations.

MU | One of the Most Volatile Earnings Stocks This Week

MU closed at 1082. This week's implied volatility is as high as ±8.63%, with a range of approximately 988–1176 and IV at 65.12%.

Gamma flip point at 915.5 — currently in positive Gamma. Call Wall at 1100, Put Wall at 1040.

Key observations: Don't just look at direction before earnings. The market has already priced significant volatility into options. What really matters is whether the stock can effectively break above 1100 after earnings, and management's outlook on DRAM, NAND, HBM4, and AI demand.

NKE | High-IV Earnings Stock, Market Has Already Priced In Large Volatility

NKE closed at 35.75. This week's implied volatility is ±8.17%, with a range of 32.5–38.5 and IV historical position as high as 80.88%.

Gamma flip point at 35.71 — almost exactly at the current price. Call Wall at 38, Put Wall at 35.

Key observations: For high-IV earnings stocks like this, directional judgment and actual P&L don't necessarily align. Even if the direction is correct after earnings, IV collapse can still affect option prices.

META | One of the Strongest AI Themes, But Short-Term Volatility Has Clearly Expanded

META closed at 751.66, up 12.9% for the week. This week's implied volatility is ±4.52%, with a range of approximately 717–786 and IV historical position at 73.71%.

Gamma flip point at 740.97 — currently in positive Gamma. Put Wall at 740, Call Wall at 800.

Key observations: Muse is an important observation point for this week's AI Agent theme. But META has already rallied significantly in the short term. What to watch next is whether 740 can hold, and whether the market can continue assigning higher valuations to AI Agents.

④ Institutional Block Trade Tracking

1. SPY | Buy 10/16 768 Put | ~$10.16 million — Current price 764.60, with 768 already near the current price. Index defense upgraded. Compared to deep OTM protection, this is closer to an at-the-money Put, indicating capital is willing to pay higher costs to guard against short-term declines.

2. QQQ | Buy 10/16 760 Call | ~$15.14 million — Betting on the tech index continuing higher. 760 is a level the market is concentratedly watching, mutually validating with QQQ's 745–758 Gamma structure.

3. META | Sell 10/30 680 Put$META 20261030 680.0 PUT$  | ~$10.84 million — Even after META's surge, someone is still building a Put position at 680; 680 can be viewed as an important downside observation level.

4. XOP | Buy 11/20 175 Put $XOP 20261120 175.0 PUT$  | ~$5.175 million — Defending against an energy sector pullback. With oil prices repeatedly affected by Middle East news, capital is using Puts to hedge energy downside risk.

5. MU | Sell 10/2 1100 Put $MU 20261002 1100.0 PUT$ | ~$4.617 million — During earnings week, there's still capital selling Puts near 1100. The market is trading the support capability around 1100 post-earnings; but with IV very high before earnings, volatility risk is equally high.

6. INTC | Buy 10/30 145 Call $INTC 20261030 145.0 CALL$| ~$2.6 million — Multiple chase buys, reflecting the market trading new catalysts in CPU/AI infrastructure demand. 145 is a level to watch in the short term.

One-Sentence Read

On the index side, SPY at-the-money Put defense on one hand, QQQ Call bets on tech upside on the other. AI capital remains, but is starting to shift from "chasing AI across the board" to segmented directions like Agents, CPUs, and memory. Energy is showing clear downside protection demand.

⑤ Weekly Risk Warnings

• Geopolitical risk: The Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran situation could cause rapid oil price fluctuations, further affecting inflation and rate expectations.

• Rate risk: If PCE or nonfarm payrolls deviate significantly from expectations, Treasury yields could rapidly reprice, in turn affecting tech stock valuations.

• Earnings risk: MU and NKE are high-IV earnings stocks. Post-earnings, "correct direction but options price doesn't rise" IV Crush scenarios are possible.

• Event risk: OpenAI DevDay, Tesla events, and other news could cause short-term gaps, with significant changes in options time value and implied volatility around events.

• Gamma risk: In a positive Gamma environment, prices may be more easily pinned within key ranges; once a key Gamma level is broken, volatility could expand notably.

• Inherent options risk: Beyond directional judgment, options are also affected by time value, implied volatility, strike price, and expiration. The above content is for market and options knowledge compilation only and does not constitute investment advice.