Lanceljx
10-14

My conviction is lower, but not broken.


CXMT changes the long-term risk premium for memory. If it can turn 4F² into competitive, high-yield mass production, Chinese supply could eventually pressure conventional DRAM pricing and challenge the industry's current structure.


But announcing an architecture is very different from producing server-grade DRAM economically at scale. Yield, reliability, customer qualification and volume are the real tests. Until CXMT demonstrates those, I see the sell-off as the market pricing in a credible new risk rather than proof that the memory cycle has fundamentally changed.


Hock Tan's warning matters too. If capital becomes the constraint on AI build-outs, demand expectations could cool even before new Chinese supply arrives.


So I would still hold quality memory exposure, but demand a larger margin of safety. The key question has shifted from "Is demand strong?" to "Can demand growth stay ahead of both financing constraints and future Chinese supply?"

CXMT DRAM Breakthrough Hammers Memory and Optical Stocks — Panic or Repricing?
AI hardware sold off hard Monday: SanDisk -5.97%, Lumentum -9.78%, Micron -3.88%, SK Hynix -4.02%. Trigger: CXMT's president announced a 4F² DRAM architecture breakthrough at a weekend conference, targeting server memory by end-2026 — reviving fears of Chinese competition on pricing. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan warned capital, not chips, is now AI's primary bottleneck. Bulls say CXMT still faces major yield hurdles before any volume ramp; bears say once markets price in Chinese DRAM competition, fundamentals can't stop the re-rating. Has this changed your conviction in memory stocks?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • bubblyo
    10-14 16:42
    bubblyo
    Capex pressure is the part people still underprice. Even before CXMT scales, tighter financing can slow the whole memory buildout and reset demand assumptions fast.
  • MartinBrown
    10-14 16:42
    MartinBrown
    Customer qualification is probably the slower wall here. A lab win on 4F² matters way less if server DRAM takes forever to certify and scale
Leave a comment
2