MartinBrown
MartinBrown
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avatarMartinBrown
10-05 11:11
Since 1950, the midterm year has been the roughest stretch of the four-year presidential cycle, with the S&P 500 falling about 18% from peak to trough on average. But what comes next has paid off. In the three months after the midterm vote the index has gained close to 6% on average, and over the following 12 months it has climbed almost 15%. On top of that, the S&P 500 has been higher one year after every single midterm since 1950. $Oracle(ORCL)$ 
avatarMartinBrown
10-05 10:52
$Oracle(ORCL)$  Linking Oracle's enterprise balance sheet to Paramount's debt profile completely misunderstands how corporate credit ring-fencing works. Paramount's $52B financing is entirely non-recourse to ORCL. Oracle shareholders have zero legal exposure, and credit rating agencies treat them as completely independent capital structures. The "distress" framing also ignores the actual bond market reception: the package was 3x oversubscribed, pulling in $150 billion in institutional demand from credit players like Apollo and Pimco. Debt desks don't commit $150B on a vague hope that Larry Ellison liquidates personal Oracle stock. They underwrote the hard free cash flow of the unified studio, the multi-billion d
avatarMartinBrown
10-05 05:48
Different scale obviously, but $Oracle(ORCL)$  and $Ruanyun Edai Technology Inc.(RYET)$  both have me thinking about enterprise AI spending. The $Ruanyun Edai Technology Inc.(RYET)$  Smart Campus expected at $5.0M-$5.2M is what pulled me in. Still small, still risky, but definitely more interesting now.
$Oracle(ORCL)$ I'm fairly confident that a Japan-related deal around $179 billion gets announced within the next 30 days. Here's my reasoning. A director holding 390 restricted shares that were gifted to him doesn't suddenly put $3.4 million of his own money into buying another 25,000 shares of Oracle at $139 per share unless he has a good sense of what's coming down the pipeline. On September 29, 2026, Stephen H. Rusckowski purchased 25,000 Oracle shares through The Stephen H. Rusckowski Living Trust. Shares purchased: 25,000 Price: $139.352 per share Approximate investment: $3.48 million Ownership: through his Living Trust Transaction code: P, which indicates a purchase After the transaction, the filing shows 25,390 shares held through the
$Oracle(ORCL)$  An Oracle director just put $3.5M of his own money into 25K shares around $139. Not RSUs, not compensation — an actual open market buy. That definitely got my attention.
$Oracle(ORCL)$  The recent price action makes it pretty clear how much manipulation is going on in this market. Over the past month there were three major catalysts: the big Tencent deal, Ellison deciding at the last minute not to sell his own stock pile, and the latest earnings report. The stock being this beaten down still looks like it carries a lot of upside from here.
$Oracle(ORCL)$ Betting against Oracle feels like betting against the US, which is still the most powerful nation in the world. America is going to win the AI race, and Oracle will be the dominant AI force.
Goldman's framework on hyperscaler AI revenue versus capex is worth picking apart. They set the breakeven bar at $308B annual AI revenue based on average 2026-2027 capex, with higher ROIC targets pushing that requirement to $417B, $526B, and $636B at 10%, 15%, and 20% respectively. The issue is their baseline treats GenAI spend as an isolated product line rather than a platform-wide re-acceleration driver across core cloud services. Cloud revenue growth for $Amazon.com(AMZN)$  $Alphabet(GOOGL)$  $Microsoft(MSFT)$  and $Oracle(ORCL)$  accelerated from +25% in 2024 to +48% in 2Q26. Current AI/cloud rev
Good day to add some names at a discount. Picked up $Ford(F)$ , MEGA.X, $Oracle(ORCL)$ , and $Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$  for the portfolio.
$Oracle(ORCL)$ By the time most people check the market, futures could be up 1% or more, while oil is down 5% or more on a strong dollar. If the gold selloff is any indicator, commodities and inflation expectations could come down significantly.
$Oracle(ORCL)$  ORCL is at an attractive price right now. I've been following ORCL and CRM lately and noticed a pattern: CRM and ORCL tend to move in opposite directions. Based on what I've seen, ORCL has been declining while CRM has been rising. The trend will probably reverse soon. JMHO.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ At some point, Tesla could capture 25% of the global semi market. High oil prices and the return of EV subsidies are just additional tailwinds.
$Oracle(ORCL)$  Green coming in for NBIS. 150 plus? A squeeze can happen when no one expects it.
$Oracle(ORCL)$  In retrospect, this created new longs and strengthened current long positions, especially for those who were able to take advantage of the dip around $133. Shorts had a good opportunity on the way down, but waiting for $120 or less starts to look greedy. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. Just my humble opinion.
$Oracle(ORCL)$ Fun fact: GPT-6 Astra was trained at Oracle's Stargate facility in Texas using more than 100,000 GPUs. It was OpenAI's largest training run to date.
$Oracle(ORCL)$  They seem to be doing everything they can to keep this under $150. This should easily be trading at or near $200. It feels like there's some heavy pressure holding it back.
$Oracle(ORCL)$  Plenty of overly emotional reactions in the comments. This is a 200+ stock with potential to reach 250+. Know what you own.
$Oracle(ORCL)$ I've seen a lot of people on X and elsewhere ripping the Jupiter project financing. It's comical how many people don't understand how real estate development works. Almost every developer keeps the development company separate from the overall business and creates a separate entity. Why? Because real estate and land development is the riskiest part of the process. So if the development company or project fails, it doesn't affect the overall business.
$Oracle(ORCL)$ Massive layoffs are about cutting costs and trimming fat. A leaner company should mean better profits, and the outlook looks brighter with less debt and a steady stream of new contracts. Patience is needed here.
$Oracle(ORCL)$  Oracle and OpenAI Sign $300 Billion Cloud Deal

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