Stocks to Watch Today (20 Oct): One Green Day After the Worst Week Since June. Here's What I'm Watching and Why I'm Not Chasing It

Written Tuesday morning SGT, using Monday's US closes.

What happened on Monday

After last week's AI infrastructure selloff, tech finally bounced.

- Nasdaq: +1.11% to 26,430.89

- S&P 500: +0.41% to 7,690.73

- Dow: -0.07% to 51,966.03

- Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: +1.61% to 11,316.34, with 26 of 30 members higher

Memory stocks, last week's biggest losers, led the rebound:

- Western Digital +6.09%

- SanDisk +5.53%

- SK Hynix +4.67%

- Micron +2.97% to $904.90

Bank of America said memory valuations have bottomed, with 2027 to 2028 consensus P/E ratios at just 2x to 3x.

The other notable moves:

- Amazon +4.95%. Morgan Stanley named it a top pick and raised its target to $350 from $335.

- Intel +2.43% to $92.03 after JPMorgan upgraded it to Neutral from Underweight.

- Tesla +3.74% ahead of Wednesday's earnings.

- Nvidia +1.38% to $217.09. AMD +1.76% to $538.05.

The one that didn't bounce: CoreWeave closed down 0.44% at $61.12, even though Goldman Sachs upgraded it to Buy. When an upgrade can't lift a stock, the credit market is setting the price, not the analysts.

Some perspective. The Nasdaq lost 4.48% last week, its worst week since June. The SOX fell 3.83% on Friday alone and got back 1.61% on Monday. That's a bounce, not a recovery yet.

The macro backdrop

- The Fed. It's in its quiet period until Oct 29, so no speakers will calm markets this week. The next rate decision is Oct 27 to 28. September CPI rose 0.6% month on month, the fastest pace in nearly five months, and Friday's CME pricing put the odds of a December hike at 74.3%.

- Housing is cracking. NAHB homebuilder sentiment fell three points to 29, its lowest since June 2012. The 30-year mortgage rate averaged 7.40% last week, according to Freddie Mac.

- Oil. Houthi forces claimed six attacks on Saudi oil and airport targets over two days. WTI traded around $103.7 on Monday afternoon, up about 2.4%. Saudi Arabia postponed its Future Investment Initiative conference to 2027.

Today's calendar (SGT)

Before the US open:

- GE Aerospace: EPS estimate $2.00

- General Motors: EPS estimate $3.69

- RTX: EPS estimate $1.78

- 3M: EPS estimate $2.39

- Northrop Grumman: EPS estimate $7.18

- Philip Morris: EPS estimate $2.29

8:30 PM SGT: September housing starts and building permits. With homebuilder sentiment at a 14-year low, this is a direct read on how high mortgage rates are hitting construction.

9:30 PM SGT: US market open.

After the close (early Wednesday morning SGT):

- Netflix: EPS estimate $0.82 on $12.9 billion of revenue. This is the first mega-cap tech report of the season.

- Capital One ($5.50 estimate) and United Airlines ($2.58 estimate): useful reads on consumer credit and travel demand.

Coming next:

- Wednesday after the close: Meta (EPS estimate $5.94 on $63.35 billion of revenue) and Tesla (EPS estimate $0.45 on $28.11 billion). Tesla's Q3 deliveries were 486,532, ahead of the roughly 461,000 analysts expected. IBM, Texas Instruments and Lam Research also report.

- Thursday: Western Digital after the close, and Procter & Gamble, Lockheed Martin and Union Pacific before the open.

Stocks I'm watching

$NFLX: the first mega-cap report sets the tone for the whole earnings season. A strong consumer number after a hot CPI print would show that spending is still holding up.

$GE and $GM: GE tells us about aerospace demand. GM tells us about the auto consumer under 7%+ financing rates.

$AMZN: up nearly 5% on one upgrade. Amazon's earnings are expected on Oct 29, but the date isn't confirmed yet. That puts it inside my blackout window from Oct 22.

$META: Wednesday's report is the most important of the week for the AI trade. Whatever Meta says about 2027 capex will move Nvidia, memory and the neoclouds.

$MU and $SNDK: the memory bounce is the first real test after last week's slide. SK Hynix reports Oct 28 Seoul time and SanDisk Oct 29.

$CRWV: the stock that didn't bounce. I'm watching the CDS, not the price.

How I'm running my sell-put strategy this week

1. A bounce is not a green light.

One green day after the worst week since June doesn't change the trend. The stock still has to be above its 200-day moving average, and its own option chain has to pass my volatility gates: IV Rank of at least 40%, IV Percentile of at least 45%, and implied volatility at least 1.2 times historical volatility.

2. The earnings wall decides first.

I don't hold earnings inside an expiry, and I open no new positions within 7 days of a report. My 30 to 45 day expiries run from late November to early December, which crosses almost every big name:

- Amazon: expected Oct 29, unconfirmed. Blackout from Oct 22. Blocked.

- AMD: Nov 3, confirmed. Blocked.

- Nvidia: expected around Nov 17, unconfirmed. Every expiry in my window crosses it. Blocked for now.

- Meta: Oct 21. Microsoft and Alphabet: Oct 28. I want to see their capex before I take any position.

This is why I don't chase moves like Amazon's +5% on Monday. Selling a put a week before earnings means taking the binary risk without being paid properly for it.

3. Build the list, not the position.

This week I'm ranking names, not trading them. Once each report is out and the price settles, I check the 200-day SMA, rerun the volatility gates, and set the strike at the lower of two anchors: the one standard deviation floor or the key moving average x 0.98, with delta between 0.15 and 0.25.

4. Keep a bigger cash buffer while volatility is elevated.

My rule is to raise my excess liquidity floor when the VIX is high. Hot inflation, oil above $100 and a hike priced for December are exactly when you want room for an assignment, not a fully used account.

5. Size and exits don't change.

Core names are capped at 5% of the account and everything else at 2%. Every position gets a 50% take-profit order on fill, a stop at 2x the premium for core names and 2.5x for the rest, and one roll at most.

My plan for tonight

I'm watching, not trading. I'll check the GE and GM guidance before the open, the housing data at 8:30 PM, whether the SOX can hold Monday's gain after the 9:30 PM open, and then Netflix overnight. The real test is Meta on Wednesday. If Meta confirms its AI spending and chips still sell off on rates, that's the fear I want to sell into once the gates line up. If everything rips higher, I let it go. Missing a rally costs me nothing. Selling a put into a pre-earnings spike can cost me a lot.

Was Monday the start of a real bottom, or a relief bounce in a market that's still nervous about rates and AI funding? And which report matters most to you this week: Netflix, Meta or Tesla?

This is my personal trading framework, shared for education. It is not investment advice. Options carry significant risk, including assignment and losses larger than the premium collected. Always verify live chain data and confirmed earnings dates before trading.

$NFLX $META $AMZN $MU $TSLA