Analyzing Intel Ahead of Next Week's Earnings Report

Intel rose 500%+ over 12 months to hit a $142.35 all-time high in June, but fell nearly 40% since then to $86.85 as of Thursday morning. Let's check out the chip giant's fundamentals and technicals after the stock recently got a key analyst upgrade ahead of next week's earnings report.

Intel's Fundamental Analysis

$Intel(INTC)$   is preparing to report Q3 results next Thursday after the closing bell, with the Street looking for $0.39 in adjusted earnings per share on about $16.5 billion of revenue.

That would represent 70% growth from the $0.23 in adjusted EPS that Intel saw in the same period last year, as well as about 20.4% sales growth from $13.7 billion 12 months earlier.

Interestingly, 33 of the 36 sell-side analysts that cover INTC have already increased their earnings estimates since the quarter began, while three have left their numbers unchanged. (None have cut their outlooks.)

Two Analysts Show Intel Some Love

Intel's earnings report will come at a time when two analysts – one bullish and one formerly bearish – recently wrote more positively about the stock.

JPMorgan Chase analyst Harlan Sur upgraded INTC from "Underweight" (a sell equivalent) to "Neutral" (a hold equivalent) and gave the stock an $85 target price – some 2% below Intel's recent trading levels.

Why highlight this?

Well, Sur had a sell-equivalent rating on Intel going all the way back to September 2022, along with a $32 target price on the shares.

In fact, the analyst kept his sell-equivalent rating on the stock up until now even as Intel traded all the way into the $140s in June.

So, a big bank's analyst had long been an Intel bear, but is now softening his stance.

Notably, TipRanks rates Sur at five stars out of a possible five, and also lists him as the 12th-best analyst out of 12,520 that the service tracks.

Meanwhile, Keybanc analyst John Vinh – also rated at five stars by TipRanks, as well as 88th out of the 12,520 analysts tracked – recently reiterated his "Buy" rating on INTC and his very aggressive $155 target price.

Of course, not everyone is so enthusiastic.

Only six Intel analysts of the 30 that TipRanks tracks rated the stock as a "Buy" at last check, while 23 called it a "Hold" and one (Rosenblatt Securities' Kevin Cassidy) ranked it as a "Sell."

Cassidy wrote in a recent note that AI-compute demand is hitting Intel's capacity limits, pushing the firm to boost capital expenditures in 2026 – and probably in 2027 and 2028 as well. And like Sur and Vinh, TipRanks rates Cassidy at five stars out of a possible five.

All told, the 30 Intel analysts that TipRanks tracks gave the stock 12-month price targets as of Wednesday that ranged from Vinh's $155 high to Cassiday's $80 low. The average target price came in at $113.28.

Intel's Technical Analysis

Now let's take a look at INTC's six-month chart running through Wednesday morning (Oct. 21):

We will first note the inverse head-and-shoulder pattern of bullish reversal that Intel saw from early July into September.

Shaded in green at the chart's center, this set-up produced a pop for the stock, as shares hit a $127.44 near-term intraday peak on Sept. 24.

However, Intel then sold off as the AI trade unraveled in recent weeks and multiple tech stocks declined.

That's left INTC feeling around for support close to its 200-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA"). Marked with a red line, the 200-day SMA sits at $85.10 in the chart above vs. Intel's $92.41 trading level on Wednesday afternoon. 

Looking at the other technical indicators in the chart above, Intel's Relative Strength Index (the gray line marked "RSI" at the chart's top) is trying to keep itself out of a nearly oversold condition.

Meanwhile, the stock's daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator – or "MACD," marked with blue bars, a black line and a gold line at the chart's bottom – is in a tough spot.

First, the histogram of Intel's 9-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," denoted by blue bars) is mired below the zero-bound. That's a short-term bearish signal.

Similarly, the 12-day EMA (the black line) is running below the 26-day EMA (the gold line), with both in negative territory. That's undeniably bearish as well.

The fact is that $Intel (INTC.US)$ might have to actually test its 200-day line before we know if portfolio managers will broadly start to increase their long-side exposure to the stock.

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