Last Saturday in the Weekly Compass, a technical bounce was anticipated for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ , along with a subsequent reversal. Declines are choppy; they don’t work like rallies that print uninterrupted bullish momentum. Declines present spikes, trapping bulls before continuing their pathway.
The current market decline has been anticipated since Thursday, October 1st, when I documented the technical reasons why a spike in the Volatility Index ( $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ ) was imminent. On Thursday, October 8th, I anticipated a bearish formation in the price action for the NDX, and last Saturday I anticipated the vanishing bounce.
The bearish reversal did not happen by chance; it occurred when the price approached 7,776 for the SPX as a weekly target, and in the case of the NDX, when it approached the central monthly level of 29,977. A bearish reversal was expected, the only question was the trigger.
From the high-probability setups posted last week using the support and resistance levels: $Microsoft(MSFT)$ reached 518 (-2%); $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ exceeded its extended bearish target of 659 (-7.1%), delivering an actual -9% move this week; $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ exceeded its bullish target of 181.7, jumping +2.3% this week; $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ declined as anticipated, though it did not hit its -2.2% target; $Costco(COST)$ reached 1,016 for a bullish +2.7% move.
My approach uses price action and technical indicators to assess directional probabilities, and the support and resistance levels modeled here every Friday are used to set targets. This approach is clean, free of gut feelings, and entirely about specificity.
These pre-calculated levels anticipate turning points in price action. Representing consensus price levels where institutional volume and market liquidity tend to cluster, they act as critical structural anchors for traders.
They include the crucial central weekly level for the week and a crucial central monthly level for the month, helping to validate the directional expectations for each ticker. For example, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ was expected to bounce this week, contingent on the recovery of its CWL; because that setup was not triggered, traders were protected against a premature buy.
Central Weekly Level
The S/R levels include a set of seven lines, three resistances, three supports, and one central level that validates bullish conditions when the price is above it, and bearish conditions when the price is below it. It establishes the core equilibrium price for the trading week.
This SPX chart shows the CWL provided in this publication since January 2026, see the effect of losing it and how healthy is momentum when the price is above it. Worth noting: This is the second weekly close in a row below the Central Weekly Level (W).
This level is updated every Friday for the week ahead including SPX, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ , and all the tickers in the watchlist (details below).
Risk Management Framework: The CWL define invalidation points for bullish setups when it is breached, and it invalidates bearish setups when it is recovered, allowing for precise stop-loss references and objective risk-reward ratios considering the levels above and below the CWL.
Central Monthly Level
The CML represents major structural support or resistance. When a market undergoes a sharp correction holding the CML often distinguishes a routine sector rotation from a broader market breakdown.
Institutional algorithms heavily monitor monthly levels to rebalance portfolios, making a sustained breach of the CML a powerful signal of a larger trend change.
The CML posted here each month for $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ since 2025 makes the case on how relevant is to lose the CML. That level acted as resistance this week after being resistance since the beginning of October, the recovery is taking too long.
For this reason the support and resistance levels work for traders and long-term investors.
Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you.
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