If SOXX doesn't break below its 200-day moving average this week, this pullback is over for now.
Last Friday, a big SPY bearish order rolled: it closed this week's 760 put $SPY 20261030 760.0 PUT$ and rolled into this week's 755–745 bear put spread $SPY 20261030 755.0 PUT$ . That's a classic tail-trade strategy.
For example, if you bought calls or puts for a trend trade and hit your target but aren't sure if the trend is pausing or continuing, you can roll to a deeper out-of-the-money strike with the same expiry. Tail moves often hit hardest but don't last long, so you don't need to extend the expiry. You just use part of your profit to keep betting.
After this week, we need to test the Trump account pattern we mentioned before: see if it's semiconductors' turn for a short squeeze.
$VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$
Anthropic announced at Monday's open that it will IPO in the week of Nov 16 and released its S-1 filing. This has a decisive impact on a semiconductor bounce.
Honestly, the numbers are just so-so. If the October logic "more spending = stock selling" holds, then this filing should have sent semis straight below the 200-day moving average:
According to the IPO filing, AVGO-related equipment leases total about $161.2B, spending on SpaceX AI and Nvidia-related arrangements is up to $120.5B, and service commitments to Nscale are up to about $44.6B. The three add up to about $326.3B.
Last Friday, someone opened 77K contracts of this week's expiry 440 put $SMH 20261030 440.0 PUT$ (the text says 400 put; the ticker says 440). They were definitely positioning for this report.
That also explains the huge SOXL bearish options orders mentioned last Friday. Based on this month's logic, semis should have crashed straight to the 60-week moving average at Monday's open.
But they didn't fall at the open.
One very telling detail: on Monday, SK Hynix announced an additional 50–60 trillion won in shareholder returns.
Nice coordination — big capital players probably talked beforehand.
Anyway, we may not need to wait for Google and Microsoft earnings for a pullback. Monday's rally basically killed the remaining value of same-day expiry options.
By the way, should you buy Anthropic stock?
Note this line in the S-1:
Public benefit dilution: As a PBC (public benefit corporation), if its stock rises just 50%, the board can automatically issue 2% more shares to a public benefit fund. That directly breaks the traditional capital market logic of "maximize shareholder value."
You know who that public benefit fund refers to. How could it not rise 50%? Of course, I'm not telling you to buy at the IPO. When the stock falls, buy the dip when appropriate.
For QQQ, note that the 100K-contract this-week expiry put spread 700–675 $QQQ 20261030 700.0 PUT$ $QQQ 20261030 675.0 PUT$ was gradually closed last Thursday and Friday.
Bullish opening bear call spreads: sell 725 $QQQ 20261102 725.0 CALL$ and 730 call $QQQ 20261102 730.0 CALL$ , buy 740 $QQQ 20261102 740.0 CALL$ . That means they think QQQ will struggle to break 730 this week.
From the bear call spread opening, institutions think Nvidia will struggle to break 225 this week $NVDA 20261030 225.0 CALL$ . But tonight institutions opened a new 227.5–230 spread.
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