$SPX Bounce Rejected: Wave 5 Downside Targets September Lows

TRIGGER TRADES
11-03

The bulls briefly pushed the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ back above a key momentum level today, but the move quickly failed. The index was slammed back below it, reinforcing the bearish setup.

The current Elliott Wave count points to Wave 5 lower, with the September lows as the next downside target. I’m watching for a potential bounce only after those lows are tested and broken—not before.

The broader structure is also worth noting. From the 2022 low, the $SPX has traced a clear five-wave advance:

  • Wave 2: The deepest correction.

  • Wave 4: A shallower pullback.

The traditional Elliott Wave Principle allows counts structured this way. Elliott Wave 2.0 aims to make the process simpler and more systematic. I’ve even coded the approach.

This isn’t about dismissing other interpretations. Most Elliott Wave analysts would recognize this structure. The goal is to keep the count clear and avoid unnecessary complexity.

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