I believe the current market weakness resembles a valuation reset more than a systemic technology debt crisis, although AI capital expenditure remains a concern.
Unlike the dot-com era, today's technology leaders generally possess established revenue streams, strong balance sheets and substantial operating cash flow. However, their ability to finance AI expansion does not guarantee attractive returns on invested capital.
I would monitor earnings revisions, free cash flow, Treasury yields and semiconductor market breadth alongside technical support levels. Moving averages can identify trends but cannot reliably confirm market bottoms.
I am particularly cautious about selling deep out-of-the-money puts. A low probability of assignment does not eliminate substantial downside risk during sharp corrections.
Personally, I favour disciplined ETF accumulation and capital preservation over speculative short-term trades.
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