This week’s FOMC meeting will set the near- to medium-term rhythm for markets. But the key issue is not simply whether the Fed raises rates; it is how Treasury yields at the front end and long end of the curve will be repriced. The 10-year Treasury yield is now approaching—or has already touched—the sensitive 5% threshold. Markets are concerned both that further increases in long-dated yields could crush richly valued assets and that excessive policy tightening could push up front-end rates and quickly hit equities. In our view, four possible meeting outcomes could unfold this week. All ultimately revolve around the tug-of-war between the front end and the long end of the yield curve, although the implications for individual asset classes differ across scenarios. A Tense Yield Environment

After holding the positions for more than two months, our long EUR and WTI crude oil trades both generated positive returns last week. With a Federal Reserve rate hike drawing near, new trade setups may emerge at any time. Many investors still have questions about several key issues. This week, we will use the current market backdrop to review the main considerations and provide a practical framework. Managing Futures Contract Rollovers One of the most common questions concerns futures contract rollovers. Because we frequently run swing trades and some positions are held for relatively long periods, changes in the front-month or most-active contract are sometimes unavoidable. Since physical delivery is generally not a practical option, the choices are usually limited to the following: Sett

Last week’s CPI release brought market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike into much sharper alignment. Following the euro area’s earlier rate increase and a 0.3% month-over-month rise in core CPI, markets are now pricing in roughly a 90% probability that the Fed will raise rates in September. Although core CPI came in marginally above expectations, the overall reading was not excessively strong. In particular, core CPI has not accelerated significantly even with oil prices approaching USD 100 per barrel. The market also generally expects the Fed’s tightening path to remain relatively gradual. As a result, a rate hike this week is largely priced in. Conversely, if the Fed unexpectedly leaves rates unchanged, the decision could be interpreted as a positive surprise and potentially

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ designs the compute engine, but $Micron Technology(MU)$ controls the critical physical bottleneck powering next-generation AI accelerators: High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM). Key Catalysts Driving the $MU Thesis HBM Content Density Scaling: Modern GPU architectures require up to 3.5× more memory density per chip scaling from 80GB HBM2e on legacy cards to 288GB+ HBM3e/HBM4 on Blackwell and Vera Rubin platforms. As LLMs expand, memory bandwidth and capacity not raw compute FLOPS become the binding constraint on AI training and inference at scale. Unprecedented Pricing Power: HBM3e/HBM4 manufacturing complexity has created a structural supply bottleneck, leaving memory producers sold out quarters in a

Last night, in a futures livestream on the Tiger platform, I shared my latest views on the outlook for gold, Bitcoin, and offshore RMB amid expectations for higher interest rates. The core of this session was how to assess the direction of these assets through cross-asset correlations, while also covering trading strategy execution and adjustments to moving average parameters. Those who were unable to attend may watch the replay of our video course here: >>> 空前的高收益率壓力下，為什麼比特幣的低位機會卻很值得關注？ Next, I will summarize the key information and trading-related views from the session, so that readers who did not have time to join can quickly unders

Introduction: Markets Hold Firm as Rate Sensitivity Rises From August 31 to September 4, U.S. stocks moved as investors weighed geopolitical risks, higher oil prices, volatile global bond yields and a stronger jobs report. SPY gained 0.41% for the week, suggesting that risk appetite remained intact. However, market swings grew sharper. On September 4, August nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, well above forecasts, while unemployment held at 4.1%. As a result, Treasury yields and the dollar climbed, prompting investors to price in a greater chance of further Fed tightening. $标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $SP500指数主连 2609

Meta’s latest AI product is meaningfully different from a typical chatbot. Instead of simply answering questions, it is designed to help users actually complete tasks across areas like email, calendars, shopping, payments and travel planning. Compared with another round of “bigger model, higher benchmark” announcements, the more important shift is that Meta is pushing AI from something that talks to users into something that acts for them. That matters especially for Meta because the market’s biggest question is no longer whether the company has serious AI capabilities. The real question is when its massive AI spending starts turning into revenue. Meta has continued to invest heavily in data centers, GPUs and top AI talent, but stronger models alone do not automatically create a new busine

Macro Strategy Weekly China’s Rebounding Energy Demand Is Pushing Global Yields Higher: What Is the Best Options Strategy for Navigating a Range-Bound Market? Weekly Strategy Summary The key focus for markets this week is not to make a directional bet on any single asset. Rather, it is to monitor how the yen, crude oil, global bond yields, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. equities establish new inter-market linkages. The key takeaways from this week’s report are as follows. $Japanese Yen - main 2609(JPYmain)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2610(CLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2610(QMmain)$

The market’s greatest challenge this week is that several seemingly independent trading themes are beginning to interact with one another: the yen has reached a six-month high; expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike are building; global bond yields are broadly rising; signs are emerging of a rebound in China’s crude-oil demand; and expectations for Federal Reserve policy have once again been unsettled by comments from Donald Trump. When these variables move simultaneously, markets rarely deliver a clean, smooth one-way trend. Instead, they are more likely to enter a high-volatility, range-bound phase marked by repeated swings in both directions. The key variable to watch now is whether the yen can make a further near-term directional break. This matters not only for the U.S. dollar inde

Weather risks and food prices are starting to flash at the same time. The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed that El Niño is now established and is expected to strengthen over the coming months. Current forecasts suggest the event is highly likely to persist into February 2027 and could reach “very strong” levels by year-end. At almost the same time, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization reported that its global food price index rose 1.9% month over month in August. All five major food categories increased. Sugar prices jumped 11.9% in a single month, vegetable oil prices rose for a third consecutive month, and grain prices also continued to strengthen. The key question for markets is no longer whether the weather outlook is deteriorating. It is:Will weather risks turn into

Last week’s note highlighted the need for caution around the nonfarm payrolls report. The data had become more difficult to forecast than usual because payroll figures have been revised frequently in recent years, increasing the likelihood of surprises and larger market swings. The result was indeed a blowout: U.S. Department of Labor data showed that nonfarm employment surged by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the market expectation of 55,000. This exceptionally strong report once again disrupted the market’s expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The market had previously scaled back expectations of a September rate hike, but the release put rate-hike expectations back in the driver’s seat. The probability of a Fed rate increase in September has now returned to roughly a 60/40 split.

Recently, the broader market and most asset classes have remained locked in a relatively measured, range-bound tug-of-war. Inflation and rate-hike discussions have driven short-term volatility, but they have not triggered any meaningful change in the overall trend. Meanwhile, in a less closely watched corner of the market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has gradually climbed back toward the highs of the previous tightening cycle. If bond prices lose further control from here, both the Federal Reserve and the market itself could face significant challenges. In theory, changes in U.S. interest rates drive fluctuations in Treasury prices and, in turn, movements in Treasury yields. In other words, policy rates should serve as the anchor. This year, however, long-dated Treasury yields have cle