Eldenminaj
2021-09-11

Is Apple overvalued now? Is it a good buy?

$Apple(AAPL)$


With Apple Market Cap hitting 2.5 Trillion USD, I am sure these questions are in your mind. 


Here are my key takeaways:

-With 94.77 Billion Free Cash flow for Trailing-Twele Months, current valuation of Apple could be 260 USD per share with a Discount Rate of 5% and Growth Estimate of 5% for the next 10 years. 


-Apple has the strongest MOAT among all smartphone producing companies, which is 20% of the global market share. 


-Apple's profits have grown at 9.6% yearly for the past 5 years. Free Cash flow has grown at a CAGR rate of 9.4% for the past years. Share buybacks has increased from 33 Billion USD in 2017 to 72 Billion USD in 2020. 


-Apple is currently working on launching Apple Cars, and its rumoured to began production by 2024. With the Tech and softwares that apple has, I am sure their cars will beat Tesla. 


-Sales and revenue of Apple is strong. With new products and constant investment into R&D, Apple is has become a brand status for everyone. 


-Apple largest contributor of revenue is Iphone which is at 44%. The second biggest is Apple's services which brought it 22% of revenue followed by 24% for ipads and Macs and 11% for weareables. 


-Warren buffet holds 5.4% of Apple Shares outstanding, and its the biggest holding of his Berkshire Hathaways Portfolio at 44.6% . If Buffet himself would bet a 44.6% stake of his portfolio into this company, investors can be assured that it is a solid company. 


My key Takeaways:

-Apple is a great company, with a strong fundamental Moat. The greatest in the world in fact. 

-I would buy, as I can foresee Apple taking more market share in the coming years. (Expected to take 40% of market share by 2024)

-With new rollouts and new projects in apple, more revenue is expected to be brought it in the voming years. 


Conservative Valuation: 150-160 (Fairly Valued)

Aggresive Valuation: 200-260 (Undervalued)


What do you guys think? Let me know!

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • LimLS
    2021-09-18
    LimLS
    Short term, maybe over-valued, maybe not. That's for market to decide. Long term, Apple is worth more, so it's undervalued with a long term view since it's a excellent business with a strong brand
  • Jane777
    2021-09-18
    Jane777
    Apple should have no problem to hit at least $200 for their reputation and brand
  • panz3l
    2021-09-18
    panz3l
    don't think they can get better than Tesla so soon, well hope for more apple hardcore fans to make it happens
  • Toby_Chua
    2021-09-16
    Toby_Chua
    I will wait for around $130 to reenter
  • Kcmt
    2021-10-06
    Kcmt
    As long as the price per stock doesn't go below 150 I think we can obtain their stocks. They have strong branding worldwide, so it's possible to look at long term aka 5-10 years time
  • RobinTan
    2021-09-16
    RobinTan
    wait first lah. fed is having a meeting this month
Leave a comment
624
46