Three major events in the overnight bulk market:
IEA Upgrades Global Demand Forecast for 2021 and 2022
The IEA monthly report raised the global demand forecast for 2021 and 2022 by 200,000 barrels per day, due to the weakening of epidemic restrictions in novel coronavirus pneumonia. OECD crude oil inventories are down 354 million barrels from a year ago, the lowest level in seven years. OPEC + may increase its oil production by 4.4 million barrels per day this year.
API crude oil inventories in the United States recorded an increase of 1.404 million barrels last week
API crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 1.404 million barrels in the week from the United States to January 14, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.367 million barrels, and the previous value decreased by 1.077 million barrels.
Iranian President visits Russia to enhance bilateral relations
At the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Iranian President Leahy arrived in Moscow on January 19th for a two-day visit. This is Leahy's first visit to Russia since he took office in August last year, which has attracted great attention from the media of both countries. Some analysts said that during this visit, the cooperation between Russia and Iran in military technology and economic and trade fields attracted the most attention.
According to the Russian News Agency reported on the 19th, Putin met with Leahy in the Kremlin that day. Putin said that even in the context of the pandemic, the total trade volume between Russia and Iran still increased by 38%. He said that Russia wants to know Iran's position on restarting the situation in the Iranian nuclear deal and Afghanistan. Leahy said that Iran hopes to maintain stable and comprehensive relations with Russia, and the cooperation between Iran and Russia in combating terrorism in Syria can create preconditions for expansion and application in other fields. Iran and Russia can form synergy in cooperation to better resist the pressure from the West. Leahy thanked Putin for his help in Iran's accession to the SCO.And stressed that Iran and Russia can significantly strengthen cooperation in the economic field. Iran has submitted a 20-year draft strategic cooperation agreement to Russia.
According to a report by Iran's Tasneem News Agency on January 19th, Leahy told reporters at the airport before leaving that day that the purpose of this trip is to promote regional diplomacy. Considering the relations between the two countries in politics, economy and trade, this visit to Russia will become a turning point in bilateral relations. Leahy said that this visit mainly focuses on bilateral relations between Iran and Russia, especially in the fields of politics, economy, energy, trade and aviation. Considering the great potential of the two countries,The interaction and cooperation between the two countries will help safeguard the common interests of both sides, curb unilateralism in the world and create regional security and stability. According to reports, Leahy will deliver a speech in the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament) on the 20th and meet with Iranian people in Russia. Iranian Foreign Minister, Finance Minister and Oil Minister visited with the delegation.
This meeting provides great imagination for Iranian oil exports to return to the market.
Highlights of last night
Britain and the United States will start negotiations on steel and aluminum tariffs
In the early morning of January 20th, the United States and Britain issued a joint statement saying that the two countries would start negotiations to resolve the trade dispute caused by the tariffs imposed by the United States on imported steel and aluminum.
The two sides did not disclose a specific date or timetable for the talks, but the talks will involve global steel and aluminum overcapacity, including the imposition of tariffs by the United States on metals from Britain. It is reported that the negotiations will also involve 25% retaliatory tariffs imposed by Britain on American products, including whisky, motorcycles, jeans and tobacco.
US Commerce Secretary Raimondo and British International Trade Secretary Trevelyan said in a joint statement: "The distortion caused by overcapacity poses a serious threat to the market-oriented steel and aluminum industries in the United States and Britain, and the workers in these industries." The United States may lift steel tariffs on Britain, which is expected to end retaliatory tariffs on American whisky. A UK government source said that until the two countries reach an agreement, the UK will continue to take rebalancing measures against US products and will not hesitate to take any necessary actions to protect the steel and aluminum industries that are vital to the UK.
Biden's first press conference this year is full of material
Biden delivered a speech on several topics at the first press conference this year. In terms of economic policy, Biden said that the key work to control price increases lies in the Federal Reserve; The Fed now needs to readjust its support to support its independence. In addition, the government is trying to increase oil supply. On domestic legislation, he said, it is obvious that tax and expenditure plans should be split now. Geopolitically, Biden said he believed Russia would take action against Ukraine. Once the situation in Ukraine escalates, Russia will not be able to trade in dollars. If sanctions are imposed on Russia, it will also affect the American and European economies. Besides, now is not the time to abandon the Iranian nuclear talks.
The United States will invest $14 billion to strengthen ports and waterways
The White House said that the US Army Corps of Engineers will invest $14 billion to strengthen the port and waterway supply chain according to the bipartisan infrastructure law. These projects include the expansion of some of the largest and fastest growing ports in the United States, such as Long Beach Port in California.
British inflation unexpectedly rises to its highest level in 30 years, and the Bank of England is under great pressure
Britain's CPI rose at an annual rate of 5.4% in December, the fastest growth rate in 30 years, adding to the Bank of England's interest rate hikeSo as to curb the pressure of inflation, which led to the speculation that there will be a rapid tightening cycle of monetary policy. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for UK inflation, predicting that the core inflation rate and the overall inflation rate in the UK will peak at 4.8% and 7.2% respectively in April.
Li Keqiang: Continue 11 preferential tax and fee policies until the end of 2023
According to CCTV, Li Keqiang presided over the State Council executive meeting, which decided to extend 11 preferential tax and fee policies involving science and technology, employment and entrepreneurship, medical care and education until the end of 2023 on the basis of extending some preferential tax and fee policies due in the early stage.
Central Bank: Adjust the release time of LPR from 9:30 am on the 20th of each month to 9:15
According to the announcement of the central bank, in order to strengthen the expected management and promote the better connection between the LPR release time and the financial market operation time, the LPR release time will be adjusted from 9:30 am on the 20th of each month (postponed in case of holidays) to 9:15 am, and the above adjustment will be implemented from January 20th, 2022.
In 2021, the central enterprises achieved operating income of 36.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%
The State Council Information Office held a press conference on Wednesday, at which it was introduced that in 2021, the central enterprises achieved operating income of 36.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. The total profit was 2.4 trillion yuan and the net profit was 1.8 trillion yuan, up 30.3% and 29.8% respectively.
[Energy and Chemical Industry]
German Economy Minister: Germany's natural gas reserves are only 50%
According to Russian RT today, the German economy minister said that according to the data of European natural gas infrastructure registration, the natural gas storage rate in Germany is only 50.6%, which is theoretically equivalent to 17.7 days. Because of NATO's eastward expansion and Ukraine's problem, Russia has been threatening to "die" Germany and other European countries.
Volcanic eruption in Tonga caused huge waves, which caused an oil tanker to leak oil
Two people were killed in an unusually huge wave caused by an undersea volcanic eruption in Tonga that spread to Peru. The huge waves also caused an oil spill on a ship. The tanker was unloading to supply crude oil to La Pampila refinery owned by Spanish national oil company.
The joint investigation team of the State Council seriously investigated and dealt with the problem of PetroChina reselling imported crude oil
After verification and investigation, in June 2006, the fuel oil company sold 400,000 tons of imported crude oil to Shandong Binhua Group in the name of "blended fuel oil", which led to the reselling of imported crude oil by PetroChina. Over the years, PetroChina has resold 179.5 million tons of imported crude oil.
Joint statement: Britain and the United States agree to start negotiations on steel tariff dispute
The US and UK are set to launch talks to address US steel and aluminium tariffs on the UK and global overcapacity. The United States may lift steel tariffs on Britain, which is expected to end retaliatory tariffs on American whisky.
State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission: Steadily promote the reorganization and integration of steel
Peng Huagang, spokesperson of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, said that the reorganization and professional integration of central enterprises should be solidly promoted. In terms of strategic restructuring, we will steadily push forward the restructuring and integration in steel and other fields, and timely study and set up new central enterprise groups in related fields. In terms of professional integration, we will actively promote the professional integration of grain reserve processing, ports and docks and other fields.
The output of building materials continues to rise, and the inventory accelerates to accumulate
Inventory analysis of looking for steel net in the third week of January: this week (2022.1.13-2022.1.19)
① The output of building materials was 3,337,300 tons, an increase of 15,600 tons or 0.47% from the previous week; Year-on-year decrease of 821,000 tons, down 19.74%.
② The building materials factory warehouse was 2,161,200 tons, an increase of 161,100 tons or 8.05% on a week-on-week basis; Year-on-year decrease of 1,089,900 tons, a decrease of 33.52%.
③ The building materials library was 3,417,800 tons, an increase of 369,900 tons or 12.14% from the previous week; Year-on-year increase of 439,800 tons, up 14.77%.
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