Fundamental analysis(1) In the United States, ISM manufacturing PMI continued to decline in May, while service PMI slowed down its expansion. In June, rate hike was suspended and expected to heat up.According to the data released on June 1st, the ISM manufacturing PMI of the United States recorded 46.9 in May, with the previous value of 47.1 and the expected value of 47. The ISM manufacturing PMI of the United States in May fell short of the expected downward trend. According to the data released on June 5, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI of the United States recorded 50.3 in May, with the previous value of 51.9 and the expected value of 52.3. The ISM service PMI of the United States fell short of expectations in June, indicating that the expansion of manufacturing industry slowed down. Acco

From the domestic macro point of view, it is still unsatisfactory at present, but the price decline has already priced in some negative factors in stages. Considering that the overall decline of other industrial metals has been very considerable, and many of them have fallen near the cost or reduced production, so the weak recovery may start to price towards the end of recovery, and the price will rebound.1. Review of COMEX copper market last weekCOMEX copper price fluctuated and rebounded last week, and the operating center of gravity moved up. The resolution of the debt ceiling problem has given the market some room to risk on, and risky assets have generally rebounded. The weaker economic data in Europe was priced in the previous price decline, while the economic data in the United Stat

Recent problems in the US and Swiss banking systems have led markets to sharply cut interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve. In just a few weeks, traders have changed from expecting four rate hike to wondering whether the Fed will continue its rate hike or even cut interest rates as soon as this summer (Figure 1).SOFR futures curve on March 24th and March 8thFigure 1: Interest rate expectations have changed dramatically in the past few weeksThe sharp change in interest rate expectations is good for gold. Gold is a de facto currency, and almost every major central bank has a large reserve of gold. However, gold is a non-interest-bearing currency. Therefore, when rate hike expectations are formed, gold prices tend to weaken. In fact, since the end of 2021, because investors' expec

In Europe, the strike in France continues, but the upstream resource supply remains sufficient, the downstream demand continues to be weak, the market inventory turns from falling to rising, the natural gas market forms a situation of oversupply, and the market reserve gradually increases, which drives the TTF futures price down.The temperature in the United States has risen, the domestic temperature remains appropriate, the downstream demand remains weak, the export remains stable, and the futures price of NG in the United States remains low and volatile.Market profileAs of April 11, the futures price of natural gas (NG) in Henry Port of the United States was 2.186 US dollars/million British heat, up 0.08 US dollars/million British heat from the previous cycle (04.05), an increase of 3.8%

Since November last year, There has been a strong rebound in gold prices at home and abroad, The driving force for the rebound of gold price comes from the market's expectation that the Fed's interest rate hike will slow down, and the nominal interest rate of the US dollar will fall at a high level. When inflation falls slowly, the real interest rate of the US dollar will also fall, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold and stimulates the rebound of gold investment demand. Geopolitical crises such as Russia-Ukraine conflict also brought some safe-haven buying, which supported the rebound of gold prices. In addition, the European Central Bank will raise interest rates stronger than the Federal Reserve in the future, which will also lead to the weakening of the US dollar exchang

1. weekly performance of major US stock index futuresIn the past week, under the influence of the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution and economic data, the market showed a trend of rising first and then declining. The futures of the three major stock indexes closed up, and the mini Nasdaq index was among the top gainers. The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected by the market, which stimulated the optimistic expectation of the follow-up Fed to speed up the end of the interest rate hike cycle. However, the strong employment data dispelled the positive attitude of the market and deepened hawkish concerns, and US stocks were under pressure in the second half of the week. Specifically, from January 30 to 31, the market was mainly affected by the Fed's interest rate r

Last week, the regular meeting of the State Council once again stated that liquidity tools should be used to stabilize economic growth in a timely manner, and the market showed certain expectations for RRR reduction. Therefore, we can see that although the pressure of epidemic prevention and control in China is increasing recently, the prices of most industrial products, including copper prices, are firm, and it seems that most areas are not affected by the epidemic. At the same time, although domestic refined copper stocks have accumulated, they are still at a relatively low level. We think that the next game is between expectation and reality. The difference is that the expectation turns stronger and the reality turns weaker. The strong expectation mainly comes from the liberalization of

Some parts of the United States have recently ushered in severe weather such as blizzard, storm, tornado and severe pollution. The pressure on the power grid has increased, and the demand for downstream heating has been increasing, driving the demand for natural gas to increase; On the other hand, because the largest railway freight union in the United States announced that it had rejected a temporary wage agreement from the White House, if no agreement could be reached, it would launch a strike on December 9, which would greatly affect the domestic coal supply in the United States, drive the demand for alternative heating energy such as natural gas to increase, and lead to a sharp rise in the price of natural gas in the United States.I. Summary of International Natural Gas MarketMarket pr

The "Nord Stream 1" storm in Russia and Europe intensified!Gazprom (Gazprom) reported on the 25th that from 4:00 GMT on the 27th (12: 00 Beijing time on the 27th), the daily gas supply of Nord Stream 1 will be cut by half compared with the current level, that is, it will be adjusted to 20% of the full load state,Nord Stream 1 leads to Germany via the Baltic Sea and supplies Russian natural gas to many European countries. The Gazprom move has once again caused Europe to worry about the complete "cut-off" of Russian natural gas.On the 26th local time, EU member States reached a consensus on a greatly adjusted "solar terms" scheme, and agreed to reduce the use of natural gas by 15% on a voluntary basis to cope with the natural gas shortage facing the EU.According to the announcement issued by

Price changes this weekBetter weather and fears of economic recession have led to an overall liquidation of commodities, pushing market prices lower this week. However, since most crop yields have yet to be determined, improving weather alone will not reduce the risk premium of current prices. There is still the risk that falling yields will push up prices.With the acceleration of winter harvest, wheat prices have fallen the most. Although the crop situation of winter wheat still shows low yield, the market must be under certain harvest pressure. In our view, the main reason for most of the price decline last week was the macro liquidation of commodities.​​​The prices of almost all important commodities have fallen for weeks (see the chart below). Moreover, if the theme of recession contin

I. Summary of Monthly TrendsLast week, COMEX gold price closed down in the shade line, while the US dollar index surged and fell back, closing down the hammer in the shade line. COMEX gold fell as low as US $1,785 in May, but with the market's full prediction of the Fed's interest rate hike rhythm, COMEX gold rebounded slightly and now fluctuates above US $1,850. COMEX silver fell as low as $20.42, then also started to rebound, and now it is back above $22. The decline of precious metals is mainly affected by the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates. However, with the full digestion of the market's expectation of raising interest rates, the combination of geopolitical stimulus and the rise of crude oil, the gold price rebounded slightly.​​​Second, review of key points1. The market e