摘要：回顾上周，在经济数据及经济事件影响下，不同主要货币对走势分化。美元指数上周保持震荡，且在周五PCE数据发布后显示出一定的抗跌韧性。目前，美联储9月的降息预期已完全反映在市场走势中且暂未有所改变。非美货币方面，日元本周延续强劲表现，英镑则在英国央行潜在降息预期上升的情况下继续回落。展望本周，美联储、日本央行、英国央行等央行公布的利率决议值得关注。此外，多国将有重要经济数据发布，外汇市场波动性可能增加。1. 全球外汇焦点回顾与基本面摘要美元指数窄幅波动体现一定抗跌性 重点关注本周议息会议美元指数上周终止下跌趋势于窄幅区间波动，周五PCE数据发布后美元虽有所下跌，但并未形成趋势性走势。这一表现反映出市场对美国经济数据下，美联储政策的不确定性保持警惕，暂未达到一致性预期。目前，美联储官员发言态度谨慎，目前汇价基本反映了市场的9月降息预期，料本周议息会议成为市场焦点引发汇价波动。市场期待日本央行本周加息 利差减小预期可缓解做空日元压力日本央行可能在本周利率决议会议上决定加息，目前市场预期加息10个基点的可能性为64%。若加息落地，则美日利差会有所缩小，同时，波动性上升加大持仓风险，做空日元的难度会有所提高。除本次是否加息的结果外，日本央行本周关于后续潜在政策变动的表态将会对日元走势产生重要影响。英镑连续第二周自然回落 市场降息预期高涨但降息路径分歧英镑上周表现相对稳定，延续了周线冲高回落的走势，但价格并未触及或突破重要阻力位。本周的英国央行议息会议将成市场焦点，目前市场普遍预计英国央行年内将累计降息51个基点，但在降息具体路径上分歧较大。部分分析师认为会在本月，部分则认为将会在9月，但如果在9月前英国经济数据显示改善迹象，则意味着英镑可能会获得新的支撑。2.外汇期货与期权走势分析2.1、重要外汇期货合约走势（图）图片2.2、期货市场头寸分析据美国商品期货委员会公布的2024-0

Since mid-January, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has depreciated again, with the maximum depreciation reaching 4.2% as of the close of February 27th. The main reason for the reversal of the appreciation momentum of RMB exchange rate before is that the economic growth between China and the United States is expected to be poor, that is, the risk of economic recession in the United States has not been fulfilled in the short term, while the strong recovery of China's economy has yet to be verified. In addition, inflation in the United States is stubborn, and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will slow down or stop raising interest rates has been significantly reversed.Driven by the scissors difference between the downward interest rate caused by the release of liquidity

The fluctuation of European natural gas price caused by Russia-Ukraine conflict is coming to an end. The United States is replacing Russia as the main energy supplier of the European Union, superimposing the popularization of European LNG infrastructure construction, and the framework of European natural gas de-Russianization has basically taken shape, making the contradiction between supply and demand in European and American markets have improved, and European natural gas prices have continued to fall​LNG consumption in Europe may be released in summerFor most areas, the demand for natural gas is usually high in winter, which is the peak of natural gas use because it is used to heat houses and buildings. As the temperature drops, people usually turn on the heating, which increases the de

The fluctuation of European natural gas price caused by Russia-Ukraine conflict is coming to an end. The United States is replacing Russia as the main energy supplier of the European Union, superimposing the popularization of European LNG infrastructure construction, and the framework of European natural gas de-Russianization has basically taken shape, making the contradiction between supply and demand in European and American markets have improved, and European natural gas prices have continued to fall​LNG consumption in Europe may be released in summerFor most areas, the demand for natural gas is usually high in winter, which is the peak of natural gas use because it is used to heat houses and buildings. As the temperature drops, people usually turn on the heating, which increases the de

The US dollar index plunged nearly 2% last Friday, the biggest one-day drop in about seven years. October's non-agricultural data was mixed, and the number of new jobs was higher than expected, but the unemployment rate rose and wage inflation fell, and the labor market showed signs of slowing down. The dollar plummeted after the data was released. Even though the employment data is still strong, some Fed officials still support a small interest rate hike in December. With the decline of the US dollar, other major currencies gained a boost. As for the euro, it is uncertain whether the European Central Bank will continue to support the euro by raising interest rates. The euro may fall to the $0.95 level against the US dollar and remain weak for a longer period of time. The yen and Australia

Since early August, a new round of depreciation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar has appeared again. On September 6th, the US dollar once broke through the 140-point mark against the Japanese yen. The author believes that the current depreciation of the yen is the result of resonance of many factors: the Fed's monetary tightening brings international capital outflow, Japan's economic growth is weak, the Bank of Japan maintains loose monetary policy against the trend, the rising cost of energy imports leads to the convergence of trade surplus, and the rebound of Japanese inflation makes it difficult to continue the yen carry trade.Japan's capital outflow caused by Fed tighteningFrom the economic data, although the American job market has experienced moderate weakness, from the hist

Since 2022, Affected by geopolitics, extreme weather and various force majeure factors, The price trend of international natural gas market completely deviates from the normal trend law, and frequently fluctuates greatly this year. Because of the different factors affecting price fluctuation in Europe, America, Asia and other regions, the correlation of market prices in different regions is weakened, and the market price trends are different.Compared with 2021, the spot price of TTF in Europe and the spot price of Port Henry (HH) in the United States are running at a high level in 2022, and the price trend is completely different from the law of natural gas market.Natural gas prices in the United States and Europe run abnormally and show an upward trendAffected by the conflict between Russ

Preface:After the Freeport incident in the United States, another natural gas plant accident occurred in the United States, which has caused no casualties at present. After the accident, the domestic natural gas supply in the United States is expected to decrease, which drives up the price of natural gas (HH) in Port Henry. In Europe, due to the continuous maintenance of Beixi No.1 and the reduction of gas transmission capacity of other Russian gas pipelines to Europe, the westward supply of Russian natural gas has dropped sharply; The Norwegian gas field is affected by strikes and failures, and its output is declining. The future supply of natural gas in Europe is tight.I. Summary of International Natural Gas MarketMarket profileAs of July 12, the US natural gas futures price was 6.163 US

Abstract: Last week, many central banks around the world showed their determination to deal with high inflation. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points as expected by the market, while the US dollar index dropped sharply after hitting a new high of 105.80 since the beginning of December 2002, with a cumulative fluctuation of nearly 240 points, and finally closed up slightly on the weekly line. The Swiss National Bank, unwilling to be lonely, unexpectedly raised interest rates by 50 basis points. The market expects Switzerland to end its negative interest rate policy for many years within this year. The Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled. Faced with the weak economic outlook, the Bank of England obviously does not dare to follow the F