After a series of declines, US stocks finally launched a counterattack in the second half of last week. With the appearance of the obvious shadow line of the weekly line and the arrival of the time period, the staged bottom of the market is completed. In the absence of new news, the stock index is expected to continue to rebound and correct the market. At the same time, gold and silver also ushered in a key level of competition after following the sharp decline of US stocks.
After peaking at the beginning of the year, S&P's overall decline is close to 20%, almost completing the technical bear market space. However, there is no eternal bull market and bear market in the so-called market. After the continuous decline, the appearance of oversold situation has limited the further downside space in the short term.Judging from the closing of the weekly line, last week left an obvious shadow line, which is obviously a very positive signal. Because from the experience of many times in the past, this usually means that the market will rebound for several weeks. Of course, it should be noted that before this year, the trend of the shadow line appeared in the long-term bull market, while the rebound height after the two appearances this year was gradually declining.
The vicinity of 4300 is expected to be the first pressure level for bulls to rebound, followed by 4400 level, and there are dense long and short changes in this range. If bulls can take a step closer, 4640 is undoubtedly a watershed between long and short. Individuals tend to bounce back and it is difficult to break the position. If you break through, you may build a double-headed form, but this possibility is relatively low. Because it seems that it is difficult to find favorable supporting factors on other fundamentals and news.
Compared with US stocks,Gold and silver have fallen even more sharply in the past few weeks, which is more or less beyond previous expectations. Gold quickly fell below the previous breakthrough of 1850, while silver fell below the key level support around 21.60. This forces us to evaluate the medium and long-term position and direction of gold again.
As far as gold is concerned, the current retracement strength and speed from 2070 have exceeded the normal category. Bulls need to quickly return to above 1830/50 to attract buyers to re-intervene. For bears, breaking through the support of 1753/64 will effectively defeat the confidence of bulls. We maintain the previous position choice of BE, but if the market continues to decline in the next 2-3 weeks, it is expected that the market will bottom out at least once again at the previous low of 1670.
In silver, the situation is even more unfavorable to bulls. The market has fallen below the platform low of triple bottom before, which is an obvious signal of technical break.If it can't be recovered quickly in the next 1-2 weeks, it will pronounce the formation of the trend. Yes, from the perspective of trading/speculation, it is an ideal opportunity to buy and do long volatility. At present, the volatility is near the historical average, which is three times from the 20-year high and double from the 21-year high.If the break is effective, then continuous selling will effectively push silver down to a lower level, and the speed will not be too slow; If it is a large-scale short trap, it is also likely to have retaliatory rebound/short-selling market in the short term. Based on this, instead of betting on size with one leg, it is better to bet on volatility directly. In addition, considering that it is relatively difficult to set stop loss points at present, option instruments may have better results than futures.
After the general decline of US stocks and gold in the second quarter of this year, it is expected that the market outlook will go out of the differentiated market. Whether we expected a new bull market in gold will be crucial in the next few weeks. If the trend changes, it will be updated with everyone as soon as possible.
$NQmain(NQmain)$ $YMmain(YMmain)$ $CLmain(CLmain)$ $GCmain(GCmain)$
Comments