In the past week, as the US dollar continued to pull back, risky assets maintained a good rebound momentum, and the short-term bottom of US stocks has been clearly proved.
Oil prices, which are also risky assets, also went up, and came to the focus of long and short in the short term. If bulls go to another city, they will have the opportunity to challenge the early stage and bring more pressure on inflation.
Inflation data peaked?
The market attaches great importance to the fundamental factor of inflation, because it will directly affect the strength of the Fed's decision-making. After the data was released in March/April,Many investment banks have shouted that inflation has peaked and is about to fall back. However, the performance of commodity prices in recent weeks seems to be not satisfactory.
We believe that even if inflation peaks, there is still a long way to go before it falls significantly on the premise that the situation in Europe still lacks a break.Unless there is a very unexpected slump on the demand side, it is difficult for the current relationship between supply and demand to induce inflation to return to normal level. It should be noted that on the energy issue, the middle of the year is still a time node that can be fooled, but after the cold winter at the end of the year comes, there may be more troubles.
Indicative Significance of Oil Price
It is not controversial that the position of the king of commodities belongs to crude oil, and the choice of oil price will also affect the progress of the whole market. We noticed that there was a short trap in mid-April, which meant that there was no bull-bear trend line in the market. Now the oil price has returned to the rebound high point in March + the classic Fibonacci position, which is the most important bastion for bears.If bulls make a breakthrough, there will be almost no technical resistance before reaching the high point of 130.
From the time period of weekly and daily charts, the possibility of breaking is relatively high. This week, bulls can mainly stand at 116, so the road ahead will be very smooth.
Bears need to push prices at least under 103 to relieve the pressure or bring about a possible trend change. Considering the recent performance of the overall risky assets, this is still very difficult.
Is oil price a positive or negative factor?
In the long run, the performance of US stocks is positively correlated with oil prices. Only on the eve of a major financial crisis will oil prices break away from the stock market and make great strides.Therefore, we may need to observe the synchronization between the two in the next 1-2 months.
If U.S. stocks just rebound and then fall back under pressure again, and oil prices hit a new high, it will suggest that there is a great risk of crisis in the second half of the year. On the contrary, the relative synchronization of the two is mild and favorable.
$NQmain(NQmain)$ $GCmain(GCmain)$ $YMmain(YMmain)$ $ESmain(ESmain)$ $YMmain(YMmain)$ $CLmain(CLmain)$ $NGmain(NGmain)$
With the closing in May, risky assets have left a clear shadow. Combined with the Fed's policy expectation of "tightening before loosening" mentioned last week, the next 1-2 months may be a comfortable day.
Comments