The Price of Recession! Let's -To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

The Price of Recession!

Let's make a wild guess for tonight!

[Sly] S&P 500 will bounce back 2% to 3739 after last night's 3.25% sell off. Hmm?

Don't be mistaken. If it rebounds, it will be BUT a slow decline down into the abyss that I suspect will end by 2022. Yes, a painful process for all but inevitable.

I could be wrong and it could be a steep drop right to the bottom by June end! Haha [Happy] Unlikely, though.

Whatever the case, 3200 for S&P500 is highly probable. Current valuation at 3666 has some parts of recession factored in, but maybe not all. Further bad news (e.g. higher inflation in June, poorer earnings for Q2, etc...) would open the floodgates for a steep plunge as shown in the CAPITULATION phase of the stock market cycle. That looks like where we are now. What do you think? [Doubt]

It's going to be a slow crawl back up. However, it will be worth the wait. For most, this might be this first "real" long drawn bear market experience. (No, COVID down and up cycle doesn't count [Grin] ).

The market might finally recover many many months later, and the satisfaction of delayed gratification would feel all the more sweeter!

TGIF everyone!

@TigerStars @Mainstreet_Trades @MillionaireTiger

Will the possible recession push S&P 500 to 3500?

S&P 500 sits below 3700 after Fed's 75bp rate hikes... Is the recession already priced in? If a recession really happens, will it push S&P 500 to 3500? Share to win coins!

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

Lynn098
2022-06-19
Lynn098
Agree that the US market has not seen its bottom yet. What about the HK market? Will there be divergence between the US and HK market ?
- highhand:
  macro environment affects all markets but HK and China might not be strongly correlated. they already drop more than US.
Trevelyan
2022-06-17
Trevelyan
💭So the rebound possibly be a chance to LOCK max-profits or min-losses in the year, if it bounce back
CynthiaVogt
2022-06-17
CynthiaVogt
Thanks. I think it may drop to 3100 one day...
- BadgeLeh:
  👍
greedycat
2022-06-19
greedycat
like一个呗
- MamaLee:
  Ok
Juliaaa11
2022-06-17
Juliaaa11
Agree with you. 3.2k is highly probable! 😟
MOASS
2022-06-17
MOASS
Can't stop won't stop

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If a recession really happens, will it push S&P 500 to 3500? Share to win coins!","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dcc31c9d6098a370fdd6b383e6cd9487"}],"images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7fc41cda4917f0c8ab212394cf84538a","width":"1080","height":"1002"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7fc41cda4917f0c8ab212394cf84538a","width":"1080","height":"1002"}],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Price of Recession!&nbsp;</p><p>Let's make a wild guess for tonight!&nbsp;</p><p><span>[Sly]&nbsp;</span>S&amp;P 500 will bounce back 2% to 3739 after last night's 3.25% sell off. Hmm?</p><p>Don't be mistaken. If it&nbsp;rebounds, it will be BUT&nbsp;a&nbsp;slow decline down into the abyss that&nbsp; I suspect&nbsp;will end by 2022. Yes, a&nbsp;painful process for all but inevitable.&nbsp;</p><p>I could be wrong and it could be a steep drop right to the bottom by June end! Haha&nbsp;<span>[Happy]&nbsp;</span>Unlikely, though.&nbsp;</p><p>Whatever the case, 3200 for S&amp;P500 is highly probable. Current valuation at 3666 has some parts of recession factored in, but maybe not all. Further bad news (e.g. higher inflation in June, poorer earnings for Q2, etc...) would open the floodgates for a steep plunge as shown in the CAPITULATION phase of the stock market cycle. That looks like where we are now. What do you think?&nbsp;<span>[Doubt]&nbsp;</span></p><p>It's going to be a slow crawl back up. However, it will be worth the wait. For most, this might be this first \"real\" long drawn bear market experience. (No, COVID down and up&nbsp;cycle doesn't count <span>[Grin]&nbsp;</span>).&nbsp;</p><p>The market might finally recover&nbsp;many many months later,&nbsp;&nbsp;and the satisfaction of&nbsp;delayed&nbsp;gratification would&nbsp;feel&nbsp;all the more sweeter!&nbsp;</p><p>TGIF everyone!&nbsp;</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000149\">@TigerStars</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3501196737273098\">@Mainstreet_Trades</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667618821228\">@MillionaireTiger</a></p><p><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7fc41cda4917f0c8ab212394cf84538a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1002\"></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Price of Recession!&nbsp;</p><p>Let's make a wild guess for tonight!&nbsp;</p><p><span>[Sly]&nbsp;</span>S&amp;P 500 will bounce back 2% to 3739 after last night's 3.25% sell off. Hmm?</p><p>Don't be mistaken. If it&nbsp;rebounds, it will be BUT&nbsp;a&nbsp;slow decline down into the abyss that&nbsp; I suspect&nbsp;will end by 2022. Yes, a&nbsp;painful process for all but inevitable.&nbsp;</p><p>I could be wrong and it could be a steep drop right to the bottom by June end! Haha&nbsp;<span>[Happy]&nbsp;</span>Unlikely, though.&nbsp;</p><p>Whatever the case, 3200 for S&amp;P500 is highly probable. Current valuation at 3666 has some parts of recession factored in, but maybe not all. Further bad news (e.g. higher inflation in June, poorer earnings for Q2, etc...) would open the floodgates for a steep plunge as shown in the CAPITULATION phase of the stock market cycle. That looks like where we are now. What do you think?&nbsp;<span>[Doubt]&nbsp;</span></p><p>It's going to be a slow crawl back up. However, it will be worth the wait. For most, this might be this first \"real\" long drawn bear market experience. (No, COVID down and up&nbsp;cycle doesn't count <span>[Grin]&nbsp;</span>).&nbsp;</p><p>The market might finally recover&nbsp;many many months later,&nbsp;&nbsp;and the satisfaction of&nbsp;delayed&nbsp;gratification would&nbsp;feel&nbsp;all the more sweeter!&nbsp;</p><p>TGIF everyone!&nbsp;</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000149\">@TigerStars</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3501196737273098\">@Mainstreet_Trades</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667618821228\">@MillionaireTiger</a></p><p><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7fc41cda4917f0c8ab212394cf84538a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1002\"></p></body></html>","text":"The Price of Recession! Let's make a wild guess for tonight! [Sly] S&P 500 will bounce back 2% to 3739 after last night's 3.25% sell off. Hmm? Don't be mistaken. If it rebounds, it will be BUT a slow decline down into the abyss that I suspect will end by 2022. Yes, a painful process for all but inevitable. I could be wrong and it could be a steep drop right to the bottom by June end! Haha [Happy] Unlikely, though. Whatever the case, 3200 for S&P500 is highly probable. Current valuation at 3666 has some parts of recession factored in, but maybe not all. Further bad news (e.g. higher inflation in June, poorer earnings for Q2, etc...) would open the floodgates for a steep plunge as shown in the CAPITULATION phase of the stock market cycle. That looks like where we are now. What do you think? [Doubt] It's going to be a slow crawl back up. However, it will be worth the wait. For most, this might be this first \"real\" long drawn bear market experience. (No, COVID down and up cycle doesn't count [Grin] ). The market might finally recover many many months later, and the satisfaction of delayed gratification would feel all the more sweeter! 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What about the HK market? Will there be divergence between the US and HK market ?","text":"Agree that the US market has not seen its bottom yet. What about the HK market? Will there be divergence between the US and HK market ?","html":"Agree that the US market has not seen its bottom yet. What about the HK market? Will there be divergence between the US and HK market ?","likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":102428512,"gmtCreate":1655622915601,"gmtModify":1663252269739,"authorId":4096093486770560,"author":{"id":4096093486770560,"authorId":4096093486770560,"name":"highhand","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/200574f2d0554f4c05c65c156ddc6e73","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9057982718,"type":1,"supId":102427178,"prevId":0,"content":"macro environment affects all markets but HK and China might not be strongly correlated. they already drop more than US.&nbsp;","text":"macro environment affects all markets but HK and China might not be strongly correlated. they already drop more than US.&nbsp;","html":"macro environment affects all markets but HK and China might not be strongly correlated. they already drop more than US.&nbsp;"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":102396285,"gmtCreate":1655469234683,"gmtModify":1663252120639,"authorId":9000000000000599,"author":{"id":9000000000000599,"authorId":9000000000000599,"name":"Trevelyan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf4e1169b063649e55c839f1f5dec91","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9057982718,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"💭So the rebound possibly be a chance to LOCK max-profits or min-losses in the year, if it bounce back","text":"💭So the rebound possibly be a chance to LOCK max-profits or min-losses in the year, if it bounce back","html":"💭So the rebound possibly be a chance to LOCK max-profits or min-losses in the year, if it bounce back","likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":102396170,"gmtCreate":1655468860420,"gmtModify":1663252120639,"authorId":9000000000000642,"author":{"id":9000000000000642,"authorId":9000000000000642,"name":"CynthiaVogt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49133d7edf29443fb70310864b67f175","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9057982718,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Thanks. I think it may drop to 3100 one day...","text":"Thanks. I think it may drop to 3100 one day...","html":"Thanks. I think it may drop to 3100 one day...","likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":102432712,"gmtCreate":1655653331310,"gmtModify":1663252288454,"authorId":3584591537102178,"author":{"id":3584591537102178,"authorId":3584591537102178,"name":"BadgeLeh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/56a64b4792f1e004a94888900cbb9fde","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.02.17","exceedPercentage":"60.70%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9057982718,"type":1,"supId":102396170,"prevId":0,"content":"👍","text":"👍","html":"👍"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":102418225,"gmtCreate":1655570672118,"gmtModify":1663252224641,"authorId":4087701266547080,"author":{"id":4087701266547080,"authorId":4087701266547080,"name":"greedycat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fd46695ad752382d734e3bb109c001ff","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9057982718,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"like一个呗","text":"like一个呗","html":"like一个呗","likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":102420755,"gmtCreate":1655598914390,"gmtModify":1663252236041,"authorId":3579998898288031,"author":{"id":3579998898288031,"authorId":3579998898288031,"name":"MamaLee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b65143242ad70cd231ddce7436fdb25","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"4e86300037264823b9bb00ff44fc0f19-1","templateUuid":"4e86300037264823b9bb00ff44fc0f19","name":"Live trading challenger","description":"for 2 months ","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b003a3bf5345b99ab81c85272d831dd","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/885398afdc88c1ccec437c2db766c66e","grayImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/afc369193ae735956fa2d778abb73c82","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/stock-contest?adcode=StockContest2023","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.12.03","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":5600},"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9057982718,"type":1,"supId":102418225,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":102396231,"gmtCreate":1655469072450,"gmtModify":1663252121768,"authorId":9000000000000527,"author":{"id":9000000000000527,"authorId":9000000000000527,"name":"Juliaaa11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f35c6f7599277f506f966202531835","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9057982718,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Agree with you. 3.2k is highly probable! 😟","text":"Agree with you. 3.2k is highly probable! 😟","html":"Agree with you. 3.2k is highly probable! 😟","likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":102393645,"gmtCreate":1655454343736,"gmtModify":1663252109837,"authorId":3581501729978611,"author":{"id":3581501729978611,"authorId":3581501729978611,"name":"MOASS","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d0b4e1fff36fc9e1df2c24f4d1f61ef5","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.09.11","exceedPercentage":"93.09%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9057982718,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Can't stop won't stop","text":"Can't stop won't stop","html":"Can't stop won't stop","likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/9057982718"}