Bad news: The dollar has become the only safe haven

Over the past month or so, although the selling of the market has not appeared in the state of crazy decline, the continuous small ups and downs have gradually exhausted the patience of bulls. There is no new topic about the bright negative, but the status quo that only the US dollar has a safe haven suggests that there may be new bad news in the second quarter.

In the live broadcast in April, we once said that the rise of the US dollar is an inevitable strategy. A stronger dollar is one of the best weapons in every round when the United States reaps other countries or the world. This year's situation is even more obvious. Under the pressure of inflation, the more valuable the local currency is, the more the relative inflation risk can be passed on to other countries. Facts have also proved that there is no euro, yen or RMB that can be played.

Some readers may think that it is the Federal Reserve that is raising interest rates wildly, which makes these rival currencies face tremendous pressure. However, it should be noted that even the British pound and Canadian dollar, which have continuously raised interest rates, are vulnerable to the US dollar. In other words, spreads may have a certain degree of correlation, but the rise of the US dollar is all-round.

From the price trend point of view, the breakthrough of the US dollar index on the large level (monthly chart) has just started, and it is very likely that it will continue to run to a high level of 120. The reason is also very simple. The higher the US dollar, the lower the purchasing power of other currencies. When chicken feathers appear all over the place, America can buy the most things at the lowest cost. This is very in the interest of the United States itself. In this process, the risk topic existing in the market itself can be used to pull up the good news of the US dollar index. If there is no new external news, the United States can even "create" some topics and news to guide emotions. After all, Wall Street is an old hand in this field itself.

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As investors, it is obviously impossible for us to influence any American decision-making and policy, let alone try to change anything. What we can do is to keep the fruits of victory and keep enough bullets to the greatest extent in the current environment. When there are bargains all over the ground, we can also pick up some treasures. Prepare more cash is something talked about at the end of last year and the beginning of this year. Although it is a little late now, I want to emphasize again that this idea cannot be lost.

Back in the market itself, it is not uncommon for a single variety to become the only safe haven in the first round of market, but usually the value depression or anti-falling variety will gradually appear after the general decline. For the long-term goal of gold, although there seems to be some small struggles at present, the structure itself has not appeared any loosening. It is expected that after the adjustment and correction, the gold price will continue its upward trend to 2200/2300. There are no new adjustments and changes in our medium and long-term positions for the time being. If the market does change in essence, we will respond in due course.

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