LimLS
2022-07-13

White House had already come out during Monday to warn about the "high" CPI numbers for June. Managing of expectations, hoping the market will not react too badly on Wed. So we can expect June CPI numbers to be very bad if they actually had to come out to give "warning" and downplay it's significance . There is even a fake report on CPI numbers today saying June CPI is 10.2 and US BLS had came out to discredit it. But no smoke without fire. Let's see if June CPI will exceed 9. Forecast is 8.8 and May CPI is 8.6. Also, 90% had predicted Fed July hike is 75bps. That align with what a few Fed officials spoke during the last 2 weeks. The major change is actually that there is no more expectations of 50 bps hike, but instead, some 10% of the market participants are predicting a 100bps hike for July. If CPI goes higher than the forecast of 8.8, hit or exceed 9, then expectations of 100 bps hike will actually increase. That will be negative for the market.

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Comments

  • mster
    2022-07-13
    mster
    Good that the market has rise a little last week, that may help to cushion if the dip were to happen.
    • LimLS
      Hope some people managed to get out during the rise last week. Current sentiment is bearish and we might see a new low. I hope I'm wrong.
    • cy8ReplyE1
      ok
    • E1
      ok
    • msterReplyLimLS
      Looking at technicals, they do look like there are more downward pressures. 😓
  • Hktee
    2022-07-13
    Hktee
    Like and comment :)
  • Summer 炎夏
    2022-07-13
    Summer 炎夏
    [Like]
  • 12月
    2022-07-13
    12月
  • Timmmmmmmmm
    2022-07-13
    Timmmmmmmmm
    Great
  • koby
    2022-07-13
    koby
    谢谢
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