Dark clouds are looming ... expect a rough ride in the stock market in coming months.

TigerTalks
2022-04-13
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Written by @长线投资不投机

STI had a good run over the past 1 month, up by about 9% from the lowest point in early March. As a long term investor, I should be happy as my portfolio indeed has grown. But I am not really smiling today; as a fundamental analyst who believes that the stock market should correlate to economic occurrence, I don't see the market running up supported by strong fundamentals... In fact, now I see evidences that the market is going for a significant correction:

1. Inflation and Interest Rate: Inflation has been a problem before the Ukraine crisis and now is worse. The sharp increase in prices will disrupt business operations and curb demands. Interest rate is expected to increase to counter the high inflation. This will slow down the economy. Eventually, all these will hurt the bottom line of businesses and hence the stock market.

2. Ukraine Crisis: It seems that the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine is going to be longer. Some reports even suggest that it can drag over years. The disruption caused by this crisis in terms of supply chain and business activities in Europe and eventually globally will be significant. Again, this will be a drag to the global stock market.

3. Covid Situation in China: More COVID cases are reported in China and it seems to be worsening. As China is maintaining their "Zero Covid" policy, we do expect more lockdowns to happen. This will further stress the already battered supply chain and business activities situation.

So when will the correction come? will it really come? How deep will the correction be?

If history is a guide, Mr market is unpredictable... I have no answer to the above, but I want to be prepared for a storm... if it doesn't come, good. If it does, I am ready to get into the market at undervalued prices!

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Comments

  • ___ _
    2022-04-13
    ___ _
    This has reminded us once and again everything party will come to an end.. I have been caught on high on Sg Reits esp those funded in USD.
    • Boo2020Reply___ _: 
      sooo lucky [Facepalm]
    • ___ _ReplySoyabean89: 
      wah I'm really lucky i don't have that [LOL]
    • Soyabean89Reply___ _: 
      Well hope  🦅 wasnt in ur portfolio back in 2020 [Observation]
    • ___ _: 
      Now i could only ride it through and collect dividends while waiting for them to recover  [Sad]
    • Soyabean89Reply___ _: 
      Haha at least not so pain. (not vested too)
  • JZ8
    2022-04-14
    JZ8
    no one can predict when correction will come. just dyod
  • MHh
    2022-04-13
    MHh
    Time in the market vs timing the market. HODL[Duh]
    • MHhReplySoyabean89: 
      Maybe then your confidence will rocket up along with the value of your stocks[Great]
    • Soyabean89ReplyMHh: 
      [Spurting] suddenly my confidence plummeted like value of money
    • MHhReplySoyabean89: 
      [LOL]unless you think not worth having anymore, then cut loss
    • MHhReplySoyabean89: 
      You never know when u-turn of policies come. But the war is just uncontrollable. The associated inflation just have to accept it
    • Soyabean89: 
      [Victory]💎💪
  • RDPD富爸穷爸
    2022-04-13
    RDPD富爸穷爸
    Same advice - just ignore all these FUD and focus on the fundamental of all businesses you had invested. If unsure whether it's a good business, just exit and find better business to invest.
  • setia100
    2022-04-13
    setia100
    Alr'dy in the market. Prepare for it like ppl seeing storm coming. Sell losing STKs, save good 1s, keep cash 4 fishing value STKs. Be brave when others fear. Talk's free but hard 2 execute come real😂
  • breAkdaWn
    2022-04-13
    breAkdaWn
    market correction? why call it correction? a loss is a loss.
    • breAkdaWnReplysetia100: 
      this theory is very good for character building. not applicable to share market
    • setia100: 
      Think positive n Think negative makes a lot of different. Former is Self-Console n the later is heart-broken 😂
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