Over the weekend, the Republic in eastern Ukraine, which was "declared" independent by civilian armed forces, clashed with the Ukrainian military, and civilians were killed and injured, and sporadic shells landed in Russia, which further heated up the situation in Ukraine. It is difficult to say whether the incident will calm down smoothly, but we have to guard against the impact on the financial market if the war starts. And this influence will be the main line of investment in the financial market in the future.
US stock index
2022 is the resonance year of the stock market. From the beginning of the year to the present, there is not much news beneficial to the stock market. Interest rate hikes and wars are important factors that hit US stocks. However, after all, the war is a short-term emotional impact, and the interest rate hike has been fermented for a long time. It has been numb for the market to increase interest rates several times, so as time goes by, there will always be a time when the bad news will be exhausted. In March, the interest rate hike fell short of expectations or the war eased, all of which caused positive effects in the medium term.
Technically, U.S. stocks have been adjusted for two months since January, which is the normal adjustment time of U.S. stocks. Therefore, near March, it is likely that US stocks will bottom out in the short term.Moreover, I have reminded you before that the 250-day moving average is a baseline to judge whether US stocks have experienced intermediate decline, and the price is around 4200/4300 points, so if this price is not broken, then short-term US stocks need not be too pessimistic.
Crude oil
Significant potential gains and significant potential losses coexist,The fluctuation of oil price will increase in the next 1-2 months. The potential benefit is that the war continues to break out, and Europe and the United States sanction Russia, which leads to its export obstruction. The potential negative is the smooth conclusion of the Iranian nuclear deal.Iran has become an important driving force for lowering oil prices. As long as the news appears, whether it rises or falls, the volatility may be large, so the recent crude oil futures trading needs to have a clear stop loss and target.
Last Friday, oil prices rebounded after hitting the 20-day moving average, which shows the effectiveness of the moving average. The long stop loss still takes the moving average as the core standard (the intra-day and short-term are calculated separately); For those who want to short, please wait patiently. It's not too late to fall through the empty market. As long as there is no war, the Iranian nuclear deal will reach an agreement, so the oil price will fall. How much can it fall? Citibank's report said it was bearish to $65, which is actually a relatively pertinent price.
Precious metal
The war triggered risk aversion. Although there were worries about raising interest rates, that was the matter of the interest rate meeting in March. At present, there is enough time for precious metals to rise and hype.Although the process fluctuates greatly, friends who are long in precious metals should try their best to hold it until mid-March, waiting for further guidance from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.Friends who have not entered the stadium can call back a small amount and follow up more.
$E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2203(NQmain)$ $YMmain(YMmain)$ $Light Crude Oil - main 2204(CLmain)$ $Gold - main 2204(GCmain)$ $Natural Gas - main 2203(NGmain)$
Comments
the rest of the capital probably have to hold until the decline stabilized