Weak Earnings Guidance,but Intel is Bottoming out

Iverson_
2022-01-27

$Intel(INTC)$ announced the highest quarterly revenue and the highest annual revenue in history, and the revenue and adjusted earnings per share in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations. However, due to the fact that the net profit guidelines in the first quarter of fiscal year 2021 missed expectations and faced the challenge of tight global supply chain for a long time, Intel fell by more than 2% before the market.

Since the beginning of the year, the chip industry followed the Nasdaq,$iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$It fell by 13% in a single month, but Intel was very resilient in January. In the article Three reasons: Why Intel is the most valuable semiconductor stock in 2022,we mentioned that Intel is gradually bottoming out after two years of ups and downs, and the competitiveness and market share of new products are steadily increasing. However, the weak guidance aroused market concernsonce again.

Core business income exceeded expectations, and supply chain challenges restricted growth

Intel's fourth-quarter revenue was $20.528 billion, increased 3% year-on-year; Net profit was $4.623,down 21% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit in the fourth quarter was USD 4.5 billion, down 27% year-on-year.

In terms of sub-departments, the revenues of the two core departments-the client computing department and the data center department exceeded market expectations, and the revenue growth mainly depended on the promotion of the data center business. The revenue of this department increased by 20% year-on-year to 7.3 billion US dollars; Mobileye, an autonomous driving subsidiary, performed more worse, with revenue of US $356 million, up 7% year-on-year, which was lower than expected. It is worth mentioning that the company plans to split Mobileye and go public in the middle of this year.

At present, Intel is facing more challenges from outside, and it can't get rid of the influence of tight supply chain in the short term.

For the customer computing department, although the demand for chips remains strong, the supply chain challenge is a common problem in the whole industry, which may not improve before 2023. At the Fed meeting yesterday, Powell specially emphasized that the tight supply chain situation will continue in 2022. The growth of data centers is more affected by competition from peers such as AMD and NVIDIA, and affected by slowdown in Chinese demand.

2022Q1 guidance is weak

In terms of products, in fact, Intel basically released them at CES conference in November and early last year, mainly releasing the new generation Core 12 mobile and desktop processor series. At present, the shipment of the 11th generation mobile processor Tiger Lake has exceeded 100 million units, and the 12th generation Alder Lake processor is also expanding its market leading position. The Raptor Lake processor will be launched later this year. It is reported that the cache of the 13th generation Raptor Lake processor has increased by 55%, and the game performance is expected to soar, which can completely match$AMD(AMD)$The Ruilong processor competes with each other.

Intel began to refuse to squeeze toothpaste, this year's PC market is bound to usher in a new round of big reshuffle.

In addition, Sapphire Rapids, a new generation of server chips, plans to start delivering this quarter, and its output will gradually increase in the second quarter. Server chip business contributes greatly to Intel's profits. Kissinger said that Xeon processor shipments in December alone last year were higher than any competitor's annual shipments. In addition, Intel Arc discrete graphics cards have also been shipped to notebook OEM, including Lenovo, Dell, HP, Asustek, etc., which is expected to appear in the market this quarter.

Looking forward to the first quarter of fiscal year 2022, the management expects that the revenue in the first quarter will be affected by the restriction of chip supply, the off-season of the regular market and the adjustment of notebook computer inventory. At the same time, the net profit guidance is not as expected, which has caused market concern.

Although the external environment is severe, Intel has walked out from the darkest time. In view of the strong market demand for chips, Intel announced that it will invest in the establishment of two brand-new chip factories. Management has also ramped up dividends and buybacks in recent quarters, which are important for stock price stability.

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Comments

  • ReneS
    2022-01-29
    ReneS
    👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌
  • Humbly
    2022-01-29
    Humbly
    Given chips are considered an essential component of the digital economy, governments are increasingly protecting their national champions. Intel has the advantage of being backed by the US government
  • Samlunch
    2022-01-29
    Samlunch
    Stick to the winners - nvda, tsmc, asml. No need to worry vs buying intel
  • ValuInvestor
    2022-01-29
    ValuInvestor
    The bottom is apparent as drops are smaller and price is fluctuating and testing the lows. $AMD(AMD)$ is also there and can be considered for an entry point
  • SeahWK
    2022-01-29
    SeahWK
    Personal opinion is Intel still lag TSMC in fanrication process. Will take 3 to 4 years to catch up
  • Mabelicious
    2022-01-29
    Mabelicious
    No confidence in Intel looking at its past performance…
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