Summary

As the EV race heats up, EV startups that went public in the past year have average one-year returns of -56%, showing the need for "brand equity."

EV startups are in trouble as sales have been minimal, venture money has dried up, and share prices have plummeted.

Tesla is facing little competition from these EVs startups in the U.S. and Europe.

Tesla's greatest challenge will come from traditional automotive companies with EV products.

In an increasingly competitive business as incumbent automakers introduce their own EVs, startups are in trouble as sales have been minimal, venture money has dried up, and share prices have plummeted.

I discussed in detail the lengths some of these startups have gone through to go public and get operating capital by forming Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC), which are shell companies that have no operations but go public with the intention of merging with or acquiring a company using the proceeds of the SPAC's IPO. I noted in my July 27, 2022, Seeking Alpha article entitled "MOKE + EV Technology Group: The Cost And Value Of 'Brand Equity' In The EV Automotive Value Chain:"

"SPACs contributed half of the $29 billion raised publicly by EV manufacturers, suppliers and charging firms in 2021. EV startups Nikola (NKLA), Lordstown Motors (RIDE), Canoo (GOEV), Faraday Future Intelligent Electric (FFIE), Fisker (FSR), and Lucid Group (LCID) all went public through SPAC deals over the last two years."

SPACs go public at $10 per share, a price point that serves as a simple benchmark for how those stocks have been received. Of these SPAC companies, only the share price of Lucid Group is above its IPO price at $18.25, as shown in Chart 1.

YCharts

Chart 1

Is There a Doctor in the House?

In Tables 1-3, I break down the current crop of EV startups by level of funding from all sources and compare each to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). Table 1 shows the first five ranked companies. I don't include Rivian Automotive (RIVN), which would top the list by accumulating $10.7 billion in funding. Rivian's shares are down 65.95% since the IPO in 11/21, and the company continues to struggle. Layoffs at Rivian started in late July 2022 as the company races to cut costs amid a challenging economic climate and pressure to increase production. It delivered 1,227 vehicles in the first quarter and reported 4,467 deliveries in Q2. Rivian is targeting production of 25,000 vehicles this year, half of its initial production guidance for 2022.

Table 1 shows significant variations in financial metrics among the five companies. TSLA shows positive TTM revenue, Net Income, and Gross Profit. All the startups reported TTM Revenue, but only Li Auto (LI) reported a positive Net Income and Gross Profit.

Lucid Group was the top fund raiser on this list. Lucid delivered 360 EVs, helping to account for $57.7 million in revenue in Q1 2022, but revised its 2022 production volume outlook to a range of 6K to 7K vehicles following the release of itsQ2 results. Guidance earlier in the year was for production volume of 12K to 14K vehicles.

China's NIO (NIO) delivered 25,059 electric cars in Q2, which is slightly above the guidance of 23,000-25,000. So far this year, NIO globally sold 50,827 electric cars. But NIO reported a loss from operations was RMB2,445.1 million (US$383.7 million) in the fourth quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 162.5% from the fourth quarter of 2020 and an increase of 146.5% from the third quarter of 2021.

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Chart 2 shows a similar story based on one-year share price percent change for the companies listed in Table 1. TSLA is the only company showing positive growth at 29.72% as of the close on July 29, 2022. LI share price was -1.65%. NIO share price is down 55.84% showing investors the COVID situation in China remains fluid and EV shares in general remain under a cloud amid rising interest rates and fears of a global recession.

YCharts

Chart 2

Table 2 shows TSLA compared with startups ranked #5-8 based on level of funding. Only Fisker reported TTM revenues of just $96,000. Wall Street was initially attracted to its asset-light business model based on contract manufacturing. However, declining investor appetite for pre-revenue companies has taken the focus away from companies like Fisker.

That will change as the Fisker Ocean is set to start production in November 2022 and sold exclusively through the Fisker app. According to the company, reservations for the Ocean electric SUV surpassed 50,000, a significant rise from the 40,000 preorders announced in early April. The Ocean with the base Sport trim priced at $37,499 before incentives.

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Chart 3 shows one-year share price percent change for the companies listed in Table 2. Again, TSLA is the only company showing positive growth at 29.72% as of the close on July 29, 2022. FSR share price is down 40.57%. The stock is trading below its IPO price.